Vegas Experts

Big 12 Preview

2011-07-20T02:49:00.000-07:00

Big changes in the Big 12 this season as the league fought off possible extinction while dropping to ten teams and losing the two division format. Teams will play a round-robin schedule, meaning everyone will play everyone.

Oklahoma is the betting favorite here and will enter the year with some of the best odds to win the 2012 BCS Championship. The Sooners could open at #1 in the preseason polls. Both QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles both forsook the big money of the NFL to remain in Norman for another year. One word of caution though. Oklahoma has not been a good college football pick the last two years on the road (just 3-6 ATS) and this season has the Sooners making road trips to both Florida State and Oklahoma State, both of whom could open in the top 10.

Texas A&M could also open in the top ten this year in the national polls. This could be the first season since ’98 where the Aggies win 10 games. They have the most returning starters (18) in the conference. They also get to host Texas and Oklahoma State. They do have to travel to Oklahoma after beating the Sooners outright LY 33-19 as a three-point dog. They also play Arkansas on a neutral field.

Oklahoma State shocked everyone last season and won 11 games for the first time since Barry Sanders won the Heisman in 1988. Their offense will be one of the best in the country. They do have the disadvantage of playing five Big 12 road games though. The Pokes do host Oklahoma in the regular season finale, but have dropped eight straight to the Sooners.

Texas experienced a shocking drop in the standings last season, going from 13-1 to 5-7 and no bowl game. They were an awful college football pick, going 3-9 ATS at the betting window. It was the first time in many years in Austin that the Horns did not finish with double digit wins. They should be much improved this season, but the key is QB as Garrett Gilbert must play better than he did in his first year as a start (10-17 TD-INT ratio).

Missouri must deal with the loss of QB Blaine Gabbert and a schedule that has them making road trips to Arizona State, Oklahoma and Texas A&M all before November hits. The Tigers do close with three home games and if they win out, they could get into a good bowl game. But they will probably not match last year’s 10-win total.

Kansas State, Baylor and Texas Tech all fall into the same echelon. All should finish right around .500 and challenge for a bowl game.

Iowa State and Kansas are the two dregs of the draw and neither is likely to find itself playing in the postseason.

Get Big 12 picks and college football picks all season at Vegas Experts.

Big 10 “Legends” Divisions Preview

2011-07-13T23:42:00.000-07:00

It’s the dawn of a new era in the Big 10 Conference in 2011 as the league has gone to 12 teams (as opposed to the Big 12, which has 10!) and two divisions - the much maligned “Legends” and “Leaders.” Furthermore, rivals Ohio State and Michigan are not in the same division.

Ohio State, the seven-time reigning Big 10 Champion, is again the focus of the conference, but this time for all the wrong reasons. Gone is both iconic head coach Jim Tressel and quarterback Terrelle Pryor, amid disgrace and scandal and the air of heavy NCAA sanctions is looming right over Columbus. As a result, for the first time in a long time, the Buckeyes are not the betting favorite this year in the Big 10.

What we have is a wide open race in what could be a historically bad year for the conference. It is likely that no team will open the season ranked in the Top 10.

Here is some betting information for the Big 10 to assist you in making college football picks this season. Estimated lines come courtesy of the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas.

We’ve already tackled the “Leaders” Division, now it’s time for the “Legends”

In its first season as a member of the Big 10 conference, Nebraska will be favored to make it to the inaugural Big 10 Championship Game in Indianapolis. The Cornhuskers come over from the Big 12 where they went 10-4 a year ago and played in that league’s conference title game. They have just 12 returning starters and the Big 10 schedule makers gave them a “baptism by fire,” opening conference play against Wisconsin and Ohio State.

The only real threat to Nebraska will be Michigan State, who is off an 11-2 year last season that ended with a terrible 49-7 loss to Alabama in the bowl game. Although they return 12 starters, most are back at the key positions and if they can win at Nebraska on October 29th, we would not be surprised to see the Spartans playing in Indianapolis on December 3rd.

Michigan could be an interesting situation to keep an eye on. Thankfully, the Rich Rodriguez era is over in Ann Arbor. In steps “Michigan man” Brady Hoke. While this is a welcome change, there will certainly be a learning curve for QB Denard Robinson, who will now be taking snaps under center and adjusting to a new offensive system. The Wolverines close the year with home games against Nebraska and Ohio State. The Maize and Blue’s seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes is the longest in the history of the series. Look for Hoke to pull an upset in his first Michigan-Ohio State game!

Iowa is off a disappointing 2010 campaign and a tumultuous off-season that included issues with player conditioning. The good news if you are a Hawkeyes fan is that your team was leading or tied in the fourth quarter of all five losses last year and this year’s schedule has no Ohio State or Wisconsin. They could easily be 7-1 entering back to back home games vs. Michigan and Michigan State tp start November. A good college football pick would be to lay the points on the road with Iowa vs. Minnesota.

Northwestern is 0-8 straight up in bowl games since 1948. They have covered the spread in each of the last three, however. This team has 16 starters back, which is tied with Michigan for the most in the division, so they could be a factor. One spot where the Wildcats have been a great college football pick has been home finales. They have won seven straight, including six outright wins as an underdog! Look out Michigan State on November 26th!

Minnesota has hired Jerry Kill (N Illinois) to be its new head coach. This is a program that went 17-33 straight up the last four years. They have the smallest football budget in the Big 10 and things do not figure to get much better this season as we would be shocked to see the Gophers escape the basement. USC will probably run the score up against them in the season opener.

2011 SEC East Preview

2011-07-10T23:13:00.000-07:00

The SEC is without question the best conference in college football. It has produced the last five National Champions with four different schools winning it (LSU, Florida (twice), Alabama and Auburn). This is a league that has gone 15-8 SU vs. BCS Conference teams each of the last two regular seasons and has produced the most NFL draft picks over that time.

This year, the league will have two teams (Alabama and LSU) in the preseason top five. There will be four in the top 15 with South Carolina and Arkansas checking in. Georgia is the darkhorse in the East while the West Division is so tough that many are predicting a last place finish by last year’s BCS Champ Auburn. Florida is almost an afterthought.

Need help making college football picks during the regular season? Here are some free SEC picks to keep an eye out for. Don’t forget that Vegas Experts is your home for guaranteed picks and free college football trends!

The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas has already posted college football lines for many of the key games for this upcoming season. We will use those and make some free picks if possible for each SEC team!

We already looked at the SEC West (link to our previous article), here is the SEC East.

South Carolina will be the favorite to win this division in 2011. This sounds odd because they had never made it to the SEC Championship prior to last season. For a second straight year, the Ol’ Ball Coach pulled in the top recruit in the nation with DE Jadeveon Clowney. RB Marcus Lattimore lived up to the hype last year with 1197 yards from scrimmage and 17 TD’s. The SEC East could likely be decided in the second week of the season with the Gamecocks traveling to Athens to face Georgia, the week after the Dawgs play Boise State in Atlanta. It might be worth laying the small number with USC.

Georgia has become a popular darkhorse college football pick. However, as was just noted, the schedule is tough at the outset with Boise State and South Carolina, two preseason top 10 teams. This is a young team, so they could start 0-2. However, from there, watch out. UGA avoids Alabama, LSU and Arkansas out of the West and could win their final 10 regular season games. There will be good value on them in Game 4 at Ole Miss. The Dawgs have beaten the Rebels eight straight by an average of 13 PPG.

Florida is almost an afterthought in the wake of Urban Meyer’s departure. The good news in Gainesville and 1st year head coach Will Muschamp is that a 1st or 2nd year head coach has made the SEC Championship Game seven of the last 11 years. Interestingly, every SEC East team besides South Carolina or Georgia has a 1st or 2nd year head coach. Will the trend continue and lead to a surprise SEC East winner?

Tennessee, Kentucky and Vanderbilt would all definitely qualify as “surprises.” Vandy just needs to leave the SEC as their high academic standards make it impossible to compete. They are off a 2-win season and made a coaching change, so they will be a dog throughout the season and there could be good opportunity late in the season. Tennessee and Kentucky will both threaten to go to a bowl game. The Wildcats’ 26-game losing streak to the Vols HAS to come to an end soon, doesn’t it? Take them in Lexington in the season finale.

AFC Power Rankings, Part 4

2011-07-07T07:38:00.000-07:00

By Lenny Del Genio

When we started doing these initial power rankings, we were cautiously optimistic that the NFL lockout would have reached its end by now. Of course, it has not. Still, with this entry, we have now reached the conclusion of our first AFC Power Rankings and the NFC is done too. We will soon be moving to previewing the individual conferences in College Football, so we can start handicapping there as well as make College Football Picks.

To Recap our initial NFC Power Rankings:

1.Green Bay | 2. Dallas | 3. Philadelphia | 4. New Orleans | 5. Atlanta | 6. NY Giants | 7. Chicago | 8. Tampa Bay | 9. Minnesota | 10. Detroit | 11. St. Louis | 12. San Francisco | 13. Arizona | 14. Seattle | 15. Washington | 16. Carolina

To recap our initial AFC Power Rankings

16. Buffalo | 15. Miami | 14. Tennessee | 13. Cincinnati | 12. Denver | 11. Jacksonville | 10. Oakland | 9. Cleveland | 8. Kansas City | 7. Houston | 6. Indianapolis | 5. Baltimore

The top four are as follows

4. Pittsburgh Steelers – This seems kind of low for the defending Conference Champs, no? The Steelers did an excellent job getting through the first four weeks of the season last year without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger and when all was said in done were back in the Super Bowl for an eighth time. Unfortunately, for only the second time in franchise history, they lost the big game. Now they must avoid a bit of a “curse” that has befallen many previous Super Bowl losers the following season. Only three times in the last 11 years has the Super Bowl loser made it to the playoffs the following season. The good news if you are a Steelers fan is that it has happened each of the last two seasons with Arizona and Indianapolis. However, those teams played in weak divisions. The division title is no guarantee with Baltimore still around. Keeping Troy Polamalu healthy is key. They are 14-4 straight up with him and 5-7 SU without him.

3. New England Patriots – This looks like a real make or break year for the Patriots, who over the last three regular seasons have gone 35-13 straight up, yet don’t even have one playoff win to show for it. Last year, they were soundly beaten at home by the division rival Jets, an embarrassing way to end a season that saw them finish with a 14-2 record and lead the league in point differential. Is it now fair to ask if a team quarterbacked by Tom Brady and coached by Bill Belichick is simply a “regular season” team? Maybe so, but the fact is that it should still be another playoff season in Foxboro. They enter the year with the best Super Bowl odds of any team in football

2. San Diego Chargers – In a year where everyone considered the 7-9 Seahawks to be the “worst playoff time ever,” we could make a case that last season the San Diego Chargers were indeed “the best team” ever not to make the playoffs in a given year. Their point differential of +119 was the fifth best in football, only trailing the two Super Bowl teams (Pit, GB) and the two teams that finished 14-2 (Atl, NE). Only New England scored more points. The Chargers play in a weak division where last year’s champ Kansas City will be taking a clear step back. By virtue of not finishing in first place in 2010, the schedule will be softer. There is also no way they can possibly allow as many special teams TD’s as they did last year. QB Philip Rivers (21-3 in November/December starts) may be the best player in the AFC this season.

1. New York Jets – Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Jets are our choice for the top spot in the AFC. Yes, they talk A LOT, but we really don’t understand the backlash against this team. It’s been back to back years in the AFC Championship Game. Two years ago, they were clearly “ahead of schedule” as a 9-7 team play at Indianapolis. Last year, they beat BOTH Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road, only to lose at Pittsburgh. That’s four road playoff wins in two years for the Ryan-Sanchez era. While HC Ryan did call for a Super Bowl win at the start of last year, the team met our preseason expectations losing in the AFC Title Game to an AFC North team. Only it was the wrong AFC North team. We expect Sanchez to take a huge step in his third year as a starter and the defense (as always) will be solid with Ryan calling the shots.

For winning NFL picks and football handicapping, please visit Vegas Experts

AFC Power Rankings, Part 3

2011-07-01T05:10:00.000-07:00

By Lenny Del Genio

With the NFL lockout hopefully nearing its conclusion, now is a good time to start making 2011 NFL picks for the upcoming season. We’ve already gone through our first NFC Power Poll of the season and here is Part 3 of our very first AFC power poll of the year. Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and the start of the season. Free agency hasn’t even come into effect yet!

Kansas City Chiefs – Coming off a season where they went from 4-12 to 10-6 and won the AFC West for the first time since ’03, Kansas City’s odds to win the Super Bowl are only 35/1, which is the same as the Houston Texas and Detroit Lions, two franchises that have not been to the playoffs even one time during the last decade. It’s easy to see why this team will likely fall in 2011. Their point differential was just +40, which was the 2nd worst among all playoff teams (and really should it come as no surprise that NFC West Champ Seattle was the worst) and just one point better than 8-8 Oakland. It was 79 points worse than second place San Diego, whom they were crushed by 31-0 down the stretch. The Chiefs did rank 1st in the league in rushing, but were 30th in passing. This is the most obvious playoff team from last season to project NOT to go back this year.

Houston Texans – Will this team ever make the playoffs? Going into last year, everyone thought they would, but instead they finished 6-10 with half of those losses coming by seven points or less. How is Gary Kubiak still collecting a paycheck? Things started so well with an opening week victory at home over division rival Indianapolis, followed by an OT win over Washington. They stood at 4-2 going into the bye, but from there would go on to lose eight of their next nine. The defense was a major liability ranking last against the pass and only three teams allowed more points. The offense remains potent as ever with QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. Arian Foster had a breakout season at RB as the Texans ranked in the top 7 in both rushing and passing. This team’s stock will not be as high as it was last year. The good news is that the division is very winnable with Jacksonville and Tennessee clearly going through rebuilding phases and Indianapolis can’t possibly be good forever, particularly with Peyton Manning’s supporting cast getting weaker by the year. This just might be the year that Houston makes the playoffs. Stop us when you’ve heard that one before.

Indianapolis Colts – It certainly appears as if we are in the waning days of a run of excellence by the Colts that for this era of free agency, has been just incredible. After posting seven straight seasons with at least 12 regular season victories, Indy finished just 10-6 last year, but did win the AFC South, almost by default, thus avoiding the same “curse” that has befallen many previous teams that had lost the Super Bowl the prior year. However, it was also the third time in four seasons that the team was one and done in the playoffs. Since 1999, the Colts have missed the playoffs only once. However, as mentioned above in the Texans’ writeup, Peyton Manning’s supporting cast keeps getting weaker by the year. Manning also had neck surgery for a second time in the offseason. The clockof father time is clearly ticking here and it wouldn’t surprise us to see this year be the Colts last run at a championship.

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens were a popular Super Bowl pick, and they did neither, so 2010 was pretty much written off. However, they did lead the eventual AFC Champion Steelers in Pittsburgh in the Divisional Round before losing the game late. This was a 12-win team last year. All four regular season losses were by five points or less. They probably won’t match that win total this year. The defense is a year older. There are major questions surrounding QB Joe Flacco coming from within the team and its rivals. Flacco threw for 300 yards just once and that was against the worst team in the league Carolina. The rushing game was a major disappointment last year with RB Ray Rice producing only a pair of 100-yard games. Like Indianapolis, this year could be Baltimore’s last shot.

AFC Power Rankings, Part 2

2011-06-30T22:53:00.000-07:00

With the NFL lockout hopefully nearing its conclusion, now is a good time to start making 2011 NFL picks for the upcoming season. We’ve already gone through our first NFC Power Poll of the season and here is Part 2 of our very first AFC power poll of the year. Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and the start of the season. Free agency hasn’t even come into effect yet!

Denver Broncos – The Broncos fell off a cliff in 2010, going from eight to four wins. This may not seem like a big deal, but consider they started 2009 6-0 and have just six wins in their last 26 games. The Josh McDaniels experiment is now over, but the Tim Tebow experiment certainly is not and veteran HC John Fox is the one charged with guiding the “messiah”. However, of greater importance is improving a defense that ranked 31st against the pass and 25th against the run. Thus, LB Von Miller was drafted #2 overall out of Texas A&M. One has to question the former Aggie’s “bust” potential, however, as he was this year’s combine superstar who used Indianapolis as his personal springboard. Injuries were an underrated factor for this team last year with RB Moreno missing an entire month and defensive standout Elvis Dumervil (17 sacks in ’09) missing the whole year. This team will win more games than last season.

Jacksonville Jaguars – For a second consecutive season, the Jaguars somehow found a way to contend into December. They were 8-5 and in playoff position, but lost the final three games to finish at .500. Two years, ago they were 7-5 and lost their final four games. While they had four losses of 20 points or more, they had just one win by a margin of greater than 11 points. The rushing game is no problem with Maurice Jones Drew as the Jags averaged nearly 150 YPG overland, third best in football. At QB, David Garrard’s days are clearly numbered with the first round pick being used on Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, who fell a bit to the 10th overall selection. We can’t possibly see this team being a false contender for a third consecutive season, so we see them falling below .500.

Oakland Raiders – For the first time in nearly a decade, expectations will be relatively high on this side of the Bay. The Silver and Black swept the division schedule last season (6-0 SU/ATS), but despite this they did not make the playoffs becoming one of the few teams in NFL history to own such a distinction. Keeping in mind that this team still doesn’t have a capable QB and isn’t likely to repeat a 6-0 mark vs. the AFC West, so we are not buying the hype. They finished at .500 in 2010, meaning they were just 2-6 in non-division games. The division will be tougher this year, plus they have home games against the Jets and Patriots on the slate. Trips to Green Bay and Houston aren’t favorable. As long as Al Davis owns this franchise, there will be no “commitment to excellence.” We will look to fade the Raiders as a NFL pick this season.

Cleveland Brows – The Browns are our “super sleeper” team in the AFC this year. This is a pretty good distinction considering we gave Cincinnati the honor two years ago and they won the division. Last year, it was Kansas City and they did the same, going from 4-12 to 10-6. Cleveland has seemingly been terrible forever, so you just have to figure they are going to be “due” one of these years. They have had another coaching change going to Pat Shurmer after the Eric Mangini era brought more losing. This is their seventh coach since the franchise came back in ’99. Every other AFC North team has had only two coaches during that time frame. Is Colt McCoy really the future at QB? If the answer is yes, Cleveland will do well. He has no receivers though. Is RB Hillis likely to repeat his breakout season? Probably not. The Browns will at least threaten .500.

AFC Power Rankings

2011-06-26T23:35:00.000-07:00

With the NFL lockout hopefully nearing its conclusion, now is a good time to start getting a gauge on NFL picks and NFL betting for the upcoming 2011 NFL season. We’ve already gone through our first NFC Power Poll of the season and here is Part 1 of our very first AFC power poll of the year. Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and the start of the season. Free agency hasn’t even come into effect yet!

Buffalo Bills – Going in to last season, we predicted the Bills would be the worst team in the NFL. Considering how low the bar was set, 4-12 actually seemed like they outperformed expectations. They played .500 ball in the second half of the season after a dreadful 0-8 start. However, their four victories came over Cincinnati, Detroit, Cleveland and Miami. This is still a QB drive league, so we’re not sure what Buffalo was thinking taking Marcell Dareus with the third overall pick in April’s draft, although he probably was the best player on the board. The team must really like Ryan Fitzpatrick. Remember when everyone got really sick of the Bills in the mid-90’s after all those failed Super Bowl attempts? This is one of three franchises that have not made the playoffs in the past decade. That won’t change this year.

Tennessee Titans – This is a franchise falling apart at the seams. Three years ago, they started the season 10-0. They went 3-3 down the stretch and were one and done in the playoffs with a home loss to Baltimore. The following year was almost the exact opposite as they opened a shocking 0-6 before finishing 8-2 as Vince Young was inserted back into the lineup. Going into last year, we said they were clearly not as bad as the group that started 0-6, but probably not as good as the one that finished 8-2. We were right as they finished 6-10 and are now 17-22 since that 10-0 start of ’08. It was expected that owner Bud Adams was going to be forced to decide between QB Vince Young and HC Jeff Fisher and surprisingly he’s chosen neither as Fisher, the longest tenured coach in the league, is already gone and Young will follow suit after the lockout is lifted. Jake Locker was the 1st round DC, which may have been a reach. This is a QB-driven league, not a RB driven one, so we see Tennessee having its worst season in years.

Miami Dolphins – What happened to this team? Going into last year, we thought they’d be a playoff contender. The bloom is definitely off the Chad Henne rose and that supposed great RB tandem of Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown now looks like a liability. Brandon Marshall was a bust at WR. Tony Sparano looks like a lame duck head coach. The worst has yet to come for the Dolphins from where we sit and in a division with the Patriots and Jets there’s little room for upward mobility.

Cincinnati Bengals – We called for a clear drop from the Bengals last year, but even we didn’t envision that the bottom would drop out like it did as they went from AFC North Champs to 4-12 and last place in the division. Now, everything is in upheaval with the big story being the refusal of QB Carson Palmer to play for the team any longer. He has gone so far as to threaten to retire and the front office must not have viewed it as an idle threat considering they chose Andy Dalton of TCU with the 2nd round pick. WR AJ Green was chosen 4th overall to fill a void that will be left by the impending departure of Chad Johnson. When a team drops in wins like the Bengals did last year, it usually means an uptick the following year, but it’s difficult to envision the Bengals being a decent NFL pick in 2011.

For more NFL picks, be sure to visit Vegas Experts, your home for sports handicapping.

NBA Finals Betting Blog

2011-06-07T00:10:00.000-07:00

Game 3 of the NBA Finals is now in the books with the Miami Heat winning outright as two-point underdogs, 88-86, over the Dallas Mavericks. They now hold a 2-1 series advantage, and from a NBA picks perspective, that's historically significant.

Since the NBA Finals went to the current 2-3-2 format, there have been eleven instances of a series tied at one game apiece. The team that has won Game 3 has gone on to win the series all 11 times. So, in other words, history suggests that the Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA Finals and "all will be wrong with the basketball universe."

Still, the Mavericks are still 14-4 ATS this postseason, although three of those ATS losses have occurred in the last four games. They are 18-4 ATS overall their last 22 games, but just 3-4 ATS the last seven. Seems like those who make the NBA betting lines are starting to get some revenge on Dallas!

If you are a NBA totals player, the Under has cashed in either two or all three games, depending on where and when you bet Game 2. Anyone who bet the total early would say the game went Over (line opened at 186.5). If you bet the game close to tip, there's a chance the game went Under the closing line of 189 for you. Interesting to note that both regular season meetings between the Heat and Mavs went Over. The most points scored in any of the five games has been 191.

Vegas Expert Ben Burns is one sports handicapper to pay attention to if you are looking for NBA picks for the remainder of the 2011 Finals. He has cashed in every game so far and is a perfect 4-0 overall with NBA Finals picks having cashed BOTH the side and total in Game Three.

The Mavs have opened as three-point favorites for Game 4 with a total of 186.5 points. For winning NBA Finals handicapping, visit Vegas Experts.

MLB Picks: Florida at San Francisco

2011-05-25T00:28:00.000-07:00

(matchup)

The best pitching matchup on the board Tuesday might be in San Francisco as the World Series Champion Giants host the Florida Marlins. Matt Cain gets the start for the home team, opposed by Ricky Nolasco, as San Francisco looks to make it six straight wins. Both teams had Monday off.

Oddsmakers opened the Giants as -130 favorites on the betting line and the public came in quickly and bet that number up. That money line falls into a good range for Giants starter Cain, who has a 13-2 team start record at home as a favorite of -125 to -150. Overall, San Francisco has won 29 of Cain’s previous 39 home starts and the righty has never lost to the Marlins in seven career starts, posting a 2.98 ERA. The team is 6-1 overall in those outings.

Cain allowed only three hits his previous outing, an 8-5 win over the rival Dodgers as a +120 underdog. He struck out seven batters for the second straight start. The Giants haven’t lost since as they swept Bay Area rival Oakland over the weekend. A win today would equal a season high for most consecutive wins.

Overall, the club has won 14 of its last 18 games. That’s pretty incredible when you consider they have failed to plate more than four runs in nine innings in 16 of those games. They enter Tuesday with a 3.5 game lead in the NL West over Colorado.

Florida is battling with Philadelphia for first place in the National League East. The enter play today trailing the Phillies by two games. The Fish missed out on a sweep of in-state rival Tampa Bay on Sunday, getting shut out by James Shields. Our betting trends reveal that the Marlins stand an excellent chance of bouncing back tonight as they are 10-3 in road night games and 7-1 away from home off a loss.

Starter Nolasco has yet to lose a decision this season, but his team has failed to win any of his previous three starts. The good news is that Florida is 12-1 when Nolasco is working on five or six days rest and 14-7 when he starts and is a road underdog.

Nolasco (3-0, 3.32 ERA in nine starts) has a 2-2 team start record vs. the Giants in his career. He could be effective here against a San Francisco lineup averaging just 3.1 runs per game in this park.

Totals players should take note that the Giants are 8-0 Under the total this season at home and off a win by two runs or less. This will be the sixth straight Giants game where the total is 6.5 or less.

Vegas Experts is your home for MLB betting and MLB picks throughout the season. Check out our Major League Baseball trends and baseball odds and save 20% off our baseball picks when you become a member!

Baseball Betting: This Week in Value

2011-05-23T01:44:00.000-07:00

by Matt Fargo

The baseball season is in full swing and Matt Fargo will be examining teams that are making moves up or falling hard and how they can make us some money by either playing on or against with our baseball picks. This week he takes a look at the teams that will be providing some good value by looking at the other side.

New York Mets 20-22 -0.95 Units

The Mets have been up and down all season long. They are currently part of an upswing as they have gone 8-4 in their last 12 games heading into Thursday. While the adage says to roll with the streaks in baseball, this is one streak we cannot back. New York has surprisingly been a better road team than a home team and that shows in its profits (+455 to -550). Making that even more surprising is that the road slate has been a brutal one and it remains difficult making this success away from home tougher to keep up.

Following their series finale at home against Washington, the Mets head into the 'Subway Series' with the Yankees in the Bronx. The Yankees have been in a mild slide but they have taken seven of the last 10 meetings with their cross-city rivals. The Mets then travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs starting Tuesday and while they are struggling, Chicago will present us with some good home value. New York returns home for a set with the Phillies next weekend and being on the road, Philadelphia will have value on its side.

Cleveland Indians 26-14 +15.72 Units

The Indians are the most profitable team in baseball, and by a wide margin, so putting them on the play against side may seem unwise but this is where we look to buy low and sell high. Because the Indians have been playing so well at home with a 15-4 record, the value will be in playing against Cleveland in the foreseeable future. It took a while for the linesmakers to catch up with the Indians hot start so playing on them has lost its luster. Instead, we look for the best spots to fade.

The upcoming schedule will help. In their Interleague series this weekend, the Indians host Cincinnati which has been playing exceptional with an 11-3 record over its last 14 games. The Reds have a winning record on the road this season so going into Cleveland should not be a problem. Following that the Reds host Boston which is finally getting things together after a horrid start as the Red Sox are 20-10 over their last 30 games. If that isn't tough enough, the Indians travel to Tampa Bay starting next Friday.

The 2011 MLB betting season is here, and if you like winning MLB Baseball Picks, then Vegas Experts is your home for Sports Betting. The Vegas Experts have you covered with, free betting trends, free MLB picks and Baseball Picks all the way up until the 2011 World Series.

Baseball Picks: Oakland at San Francisco

2011-05-23T00:24:00.000-07:00

(matchup)

The Oakland A’s will look to rebound from a disappointing two-game sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins when they begin Interleague Play against Bay Area rival San Francisco. The 2011 World Series Champion Giants have done very well when hosting the Athletics, going a perfect 6-0 the previous two seasons. Tonight, the two teams find themselves just about even on the money line. The public has come in early on the visitors however, taking the A’s up to -115 at most online sportsbooks.

The pitching matchup in Friday’s series opener should be a good one. Trevor Cahill will go for Oakland as he’s looking to bounce back from his first loss of the season. Cahill had previously won five straight decisions, allowing one earned run or less in all of them, before surrendering a season-high 10 hits in a 4-3 loss to the White Sox on Sunday.

Oakland has won 27 of Cahill’s last 39 starts overall and that includes a 20-8 mark when he’s favored on the sports betting line. Cahill also has a 6-2 team start record in Interleague Play, including 2 for 2 vs. the Giants with a 1.39 ERA.

Cahill will be opposed by San Francisco’s Ryan Vogelsong, who comes in with a 3-0 record and 2.86 ERA. Vogelsong is coming off back to back shutout wins over the Rockies and Cubs, allowing only eight hits in 12.3 innings pitched. He did not fare well in his only career start vs. Oakland, allowing six earned runs in just four innings, but that was all the way back in 2004.

Vogelsong’s story is pretty incredible as Tommy John surgery took him out of baseball in 2006.

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The A’s were 14-0 winners over the Angels on Tuesday, but after that dropped back to back games to a struggling Twins team, including a brutal 11-1 loss at home Thursday night. Starter Tyson Ross lasted only seven pitches due to a strained left oblique. That loss does not bode well for Oakland bettors tonight as the team is 4-18 when playing on the road and off a loss by 10 runs or more.

The Giants were far more successful in their most recent series, taking two games from the rival Dodgers to climb back into first place in the National League West division.

From 2006-08, Oakland was 7-0 here in San Francisco. However, since that time, their starters have posted a 6.21 ERA in six straight losses. The bullpen has been a lone bright spot during the losing skid to the Giants with a 3.68. However, A’s manager Bob Geren will likely not want to use the pen too much tonight after they were needed for all 27 outs on Thursday.

Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays

2011-05-18T03:30:00.000-07:00

By Vegas Experts

The two hottest teams in baseball betting right now are the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers. Winners of five and seven in a row respectively, the two clubs begin a short two-game set against one another Monday evening. Looking to remain perfect on the current homestand, Detroit is a $1.45 favorite at most online sportsbooks. The posted total is eight runs.

The MLB schedule is a little bit different than usual this week as every team will be involved in a pair of quick two-game sets to take us through Thursday. For Monday’s series opener between these teams, there has been an overnight pitching change for the Tigers as Max Scherzer, originally supposed to start in Sunday’s rainout vs. Kansas City, will get the baseball. He’s opposed by Kyle Drabek, who was the prize acquisition for the Jays in the Roy Halladay trade.

Detroit received some quality pitching in its two victories over the Royals on Friday and Saturday. Justin Verlander, who was coming off a no-hitter in his previous start, didn’t allow a hit through six innings for a second straight start as the Tigers won 3-1. Saturday saw the bats start out hot with three first inning runs and that proved to be enough for starter Brad Penny, who was the winner in a 3-0 shutout victory.

The string of quality starts is likely to continue for Detroit on Monday as Scherzer has been the strongest arm in the rotation. He’s 6-0 in eight starts with a 3.20 ERA and here at Comerica Park, he’s 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA. His last outing came against this same Toronto team as he allowed two runs in five innings, good enough to pick up the decision in a 10-5 victory on the road.

After taking three of four from Toronto in that series, the Tigers have not looked back. They swept Minnesota and then took two more from Kansas City. They now trail the first place Indians by 3.5 games in the American League Central.

Toronto is coming off a dominant three-game sweep of Minnesota over the weekend to reach .500 for the season. They outscored the Twins 22-6 in the series and have scored seven runs or more in four of their last five victories.

These are two of the top five highest run producing teams in the American League with Detroit tied for third (187) and Toronto not far behind in fifth (185). The Tigers’ number is fairly remarkable when you consider they are averaging only 3.8 runs per game at home.

Blue Jays’ starter Drabek has not lived up to his advanced billing with an 8.31 ERA and 2.462 WHIP in his previous three starts. He did not receive a decision in the team’s 7-6 win over Boston last Tuesday.

Toronto has proven to be a profitable team in night games this year, going 15-7. They are also 12-6 as a road dog of +150 or less.

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Big Three Ready for MVP and the Bulls in Game 2 of Conference Finals

2011-05-18T03:20:00.000-07:00

The Chicago Bulls took Game 1 from the Miami Heat convincingly, thanks largely in part to star Derrick Rose and a well-rounded showing from the rest of the squad. Now they’ll try to do it again.

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Three Bulls players reached double-digits including Rose who led the team with 28 points. Joakim Noah had a game-high 14 rebounds and Luol Deng had four of his team’s 11 steals and added 21 points of his own.

The Chicago Bulls have 10/3 odds of winning the NBA championship.

The teams were tied at 48 into the half, but the Bulls ran away with a 31-point fourth quarter. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade played second-fiddles to Chris Bosh, who led all scorers with 30 points.

This, naturally, was a problem.

The Miami Heat have 5/4 odds of winning the NBA Championship.

Rose is averaging 28 points per game in the playoffs. He, Noah and Carlos Boozer have combined to make a formidable “Big Three” of their own, ready to match Miami’s crew in the series.

Can the merged talents of James, Wade and Bosh continue their run of excellence or can Rose and the Bulls do the improbable and knock-off the three from South Beach?

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Betting MLB Totals

2011-05-18T02:29:00.000-07:00

If you don't like laying money on the favorites in baseball or hoping a +1.50 underdog can get the win, you might find baseball totals more suitable for your finances. Baseball totals are similar to point spreads in that you normally don't have to lay a lot of juice. There will be plenty of times when you lay nearly 11-to-win-10.

So what should you look for with baseball totals? Many novice baseball bettors focus on home runs (power hitting line-ups against pitchers who serve up a lot of dingers). Home runs are certainly an important consideration, but two other factors are even more important: Walks and the ballparks.

When it comes to offense in baseball, on-base percentage is a key. This is the ability of a batter to get on base, either by a hit, a walk or getting hit by a pitch. For instance, the Houston Astros are having a tough season, yet when you examine the offensive numbers they aren't too shabby. The Astros rank seventh in MLB team batting average, in the same neighborhood as the Indians, Reds, Angels, and Rangers, teams that are at or near the top of their respective divisions. Then there's ballpark numbers to consider. The Astros own MLB's fourth best home park OBP and they're 6th in OPS at Minute Maid Park.

The problem, though, is the pitching staff, which is last (30th) in the Majors in total runs allowed overall, and second to last (29th) in team ERA. That combo explains why the Astros have been close to a 60% Over on the season in general and at home.

Some parks have huge outfields making them tough to score runs in (Dodger Stadium, Oakland's Overstock Coliseum, Petco in San Diego, Safeco in Seattle). These are known as "pitcher's parks" and are more apt to have low scoring games, but the reflection in the line can turn lower than average scoring games into an Over ticket. Oakland and Seattle home games have actually seen more Overs than Unders in 2011, despite being considered pitcher-friendly parks.

But Chavez Ravine is still Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers and their "guests" are on a 7-1 run to the Under in the last eight games at Dodger Stadium. A grand total of 41 runs were scored in those games, for an average of just 5.13 rpg. The only contest that went Over saw a combined score of only 7 runs with a total set at 6 1/2. In fact, we had a big play on the Under between the Diamondbacks & Dodgers on Saturday 5/14 and cashed when the game ended 1-0.

A major reason was the park, as Dodger Stadium has long been considered one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. Los Angeles currently ranks 22nd in home OPS and 23rd in home OBP. They're also in the bottom-third of Major League Baseball in home team batting average.

In the 1-0 loss to the Diamond backs, the Dodgers managed only four hits in 29 at-bats, and Chad Billingsley held the "Snakes" to one unearned run, one hit, and two walks in eight innings. Arizona is 24th in the Majors in team batting average. They'd be absolutely pathetic if not for the fact that they have been making serious contact in their home ballpark. Combine their poor hitting away from home while starting an "unkown" hurler (Josh Collmenter), and facing Billingsley in a pitcher's park and we had the recipe for the result...a dramatically low scoring game.

There happen to be more "hitter's parks" in baseball today in actuality, although many power numbers are down. These include Coors Field in Colorado, Fenway Park, Rangers Park in Texas, Wrigley Field, as well as the newer parks in Milwaukee and Cincinnati.

The best way to look for a high scoring game in baseball, of course, would be a combination of these factors: a pair of pitchers who walk too many batters who happen to be hurling in a hitter's park, and at least one strong offensive team.

You can apply the same type of concept to Unders. It's important for a successful pitcher to throw strikes and be stingy about walking batters. For a pitcher, allowing free passes is a no-no. Until this season, but for many years, we only had to look at the staff of the Minnesota Twins: some starters gave up hits, but they wouldn't walk anyone. That was their organizational philosophy of pitching to contact. They've been that way for years, too, going back to the days when Brad Radke would throw 200 innings and walk 28 or less (which he did four times).

He'd give up home runs, too, but who cares? Home runs are not as damaging as free passes. In 2001, Curt Schilling, the MVP of the World Series, allowed a whopping 37 home runs, tied for most in the NL. Yet, he was 22-6 with a 2.98 ERA. The reason the home runs didn't hurt was that no one was on base: Schilling walked only 39 batters in 256 innings pitched, an incredible ratio.

So make sure you understand the importance of on-base percentage in baseball, for both hitters and pitchers. Understanding this and the strengths and weaknesses of different ballparks give you an edge when betting baseball totals.

Get all of Scott Spreitzer's MLB Picks at Vegas Experts.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland MLB Preview

2011-05-12T00:32:00.000-07:00

By Vegas Experts

On Tuesday, the team with the best record in the American League returns home where they have won 13 straight times. That team is the surprising Cleveland Indians, 22-11 on the year and off a 3-3 road trip. Since losing their first two games of the season, the Tribe has won every game they’ve played at Progressive Field and they are -130 favorites tonight over the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Indians are coming off a series which saw them drop two of three games to the Los Angeles Angels. It was only the fourth time all year that Cleveland lost a series and two of those have come to the Angels. ake away LA and Chicago and the Indians are 19-5 vs. all other teams in the American League. Their run differential of +48 remains an MLB best.

Visiting Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game sweep of division rival Baltimore. They have won four straight to climb back towards the top of the heap in the AL East. They currently trail the first place Yankees by only percentage points in the division standings. The Rays are off to an excellent start on the road this year, going 11-4, (a MLB best) compared to a surprising 9-10 at Tropicana Field. Among AL teams, only the Indians have allowed less runs on the season than have the Rays, 117 to 118.

Cleveland’s starting rotation has been a major surprise this season. Among those surprises has been Josh Tomlin, who gets the baseball tonight. Tomlin is 4-1 in six starts with a 2.43 ERA, including a perfect 3-0 here at home. However, he did suffer his only loss last time out, despite allowing only two earned runs in 7.7 innings of work at Oakland. This will be the first time he’s faced the Rays in his young career.

Andy Sonnanstine will make his first start of the season for Tampa Bay. An Ohio native, Sonnanstine has never had much luck vs. the Indians in his career with a 9.90 ERA in four starts. This is only his fourth start since 2009 overall as he fills in for the injured Jeff Niemann in the rotation. Sonnanstine has been effective out of the bullpen this year in six appearances with a 2.10 ERA and 0.894 WHIP.

The Indians are looking to win 14 in a row at home for the first time in 16 seasons. After allowing 23 runs in their first two home games, they’ve allowed just 32 in the last 13!

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, rides a franchise best eight game road winning streak. They have been swinging the bats well during this stretch, averaging 7.0 runs per game. The bad news is that they are just 2-18 in their last 20 games at Progressive Field.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins MLB Preview

2011-05-11T23:54:00.000-07:00

By Vegas Experts

The only two teams in the Senior Circuit with a win percentage above .600 start up a three-game series Monday night as NL East rivals Philadelphia and Florida meet in Miami. Oddsmakers have opened the Phillies up as a favorite as starter Joe Blanton returns to the rotation. Philly has long dominated the Marlins here in Florida, winning 15 of 18 games.

This is Blanton’s first start since April 23rd. He missed two scheduled starts due to an elbow injury. Prior to heading to the disabled list, Blanton was not particularly effective as he had a 5.92 ERA in four starts and zero victories. However, he was getting better with a 2.57 ERA his last two outings. Blanton, traditionally, has been effective vs. Florida with a 6-2 career team start record and 3.12 ERA. He is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA here in Miami.

Philadelphia starters have been very effective of late. They have combined to allow three runs or fewer in 10 straight games.

That being said, the team did lose Sunday night to the Atlanta Braves to lose that particular series. They finished a nine-game home stand 6-3, but were favorites of -140 or more in all three losses.

Florida will start Javier Vazquez, who is not off to a great start to the season. In six starts, he’s posted a 6.39 ERA and he has lost both home starts. In every start this season, he has allowed at least one first inning run. He allowed four earned runs – and six overall – in the team’s 8-7 road win over St. Louis last Wednesday. Vazquez did not receive a decision.

These teams split a pair of games in Philadelphia earlier in the season as one game was rained out. Vazquez was actually the one on the hill for the Marlins’ 4-3 victory as +170 underdogs, although he again did not receive a decision. The Phillies did rebound to beat Florida two days later by a 3-2 count.

Overall, Florida has lost seven straight home games to Philadelphia. The team snapped a season-high three-game losing streak on Sunday with an 8-0 win over the Washington Nationals, pounding out 13 hits, their highest total in nearly a month. During the three-game slide, the team was hitting only .174 with seven runs scored.

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies NBA Playoff Preview

2011-05-11T23:24:00.000-07:00

By Vegas Experts

The Memphis Grizzlies look to go up 3-1 in their series with the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday night. The sportsbooks have them favored by 2.5 points while the total is at 198 points. Memphis has yet to lose a home game this postseason while Oklahoma City is a perfect 11-0 against the spread the last two seasons on the road when playing with revenge for a road loss. Clearly, something will have to give.

The team that has won straight up has covered all three games of this series thus far and with another small line, you have to figure that trend will continue this evening. The Grizzlies are either 7-1-1 or 7-2 ATS in the playoffs so far, depending on your result for Game 5 against San Antonio last round. The Thunder have been far less effective at the betting window, going 3-4-1 ATS.

Game 3 on Saturday was a bitter pill to swallow for those who bet Oklahoma City. The Thunder led by as many as 16 points in the second half, but only scored 10, on 4 of 16 shooting, in the 4th quarter, allowing the game to go into overtime. From there, it was all Grizzlies, who got the cover as three-point chalk, eventually winning 101-93.

It was the ninth time this season that Memphis rallied to win after trailing by double digits in the second half. Only Chicago and Utah (10) did it more.

Despite the extra period on Saturday, the game still fell Under the total. That hasn’t been the norm for Memphis games of late as the Grizzlies had gone Over in each of their previous five contests and 9 of 11.

Oklahoma City has not lost back to back games since April 1-2, and that was the only time it’s happened since the beginning of March.

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2011 Kentucky Derby: No Clear Favorites

2011-05-05T03:51:00.000-07:00

The Kentucky Derby will be run a week from Saturday on May 7th, but the contender picture isn’t any clearer. Uncle Mo, the Derby favorite ever since he won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile back in November, lost for the first time in his career when finishing a shocking third as the overwhelming 1 to 9 favorite in the Wood Memorial on April 9th. A week later, trainer Bob Baffert’s undefeated colt, The Factor, also experienced his first career loss in the Arkansas Derby and is no longer on the Derby trail. Baffert also acknowledged that his other contender, Jaycito, missed time due to a hoof injury and will not race either. Earlier this month top contenders To Honor and Serve and Premier Pegasus were both sidelined with injuries.

Unless something changes in the next week, expect trainer Nick Zito’s Dialed In to be the post time favorite. Zito finished second in last year’s Kentucky Derby with Ice Box. Dialed In already has a win over the Churchill Downs surface and won both the Florida Derby and Holy Bull stakes this winter. Second choice will most likely be Uncle Mo, who has the top graded stakes earnings of any 3 year old at $1.3 million and is the defending 2 year-old champion trained by Todd Plecher. Third favoritism could be between the first and second place finishers in the $1 million Arkansas Derby, ArchArchArch or Nehro.

As always, the Kentucky Derby will allow a maximum of 20 horses to start in the Triple Crown race, but expect 26 or more horses to enter the race. When this happens, Churchill Downs gives preference based on earnings in Graded Stakes races. Below is a current list of 3-year-olds listed by Graded Stake earnings.

#	Horse	Trainer	Earnings
1	Uncle Mo	Todd Pletcher	$1,360,000
2	Dialed In	Nicholas Zito	$840,000
3	Archarcharch	William Fires	$780,000
4	Comma to the Top	Peter Miller	$671,000
5	Toby's Corner	H. Graham Motion	$625,000
6	Pants On Fire	Kelly Breen	$623,000
7	Midnight Interlude	Bob Baffert	$600,000
8	Soldat	Kiaran McLaughlin	$540,000
9	Brilliant Speed	Thomas Albertrani	$450,000
10	Master of Hounds	Aidan O'Brien	$441,884
11	Nehro	Steven Asmussen	$400,000
12	Twice the Appeal	Jeff Bonde	$400,000
13	Mucho Macho Man	Katherine Ritvo	$370,000
14	Decisive Moment	Juan Arias	$301,000
15	Animal Kingdom	H. Graham Motion	$285,000
16	Stay Thirsty	Todd Pletcher	$260,000
17	Santiva	Eddie Kenneally	$242,397
18	Watch Me Go	Kathleen O'Connell	$235,500
19	Shackleford	Dale Romans	$212,000
20	Twinspired	Michael Maker	$197,500
21	Anthony's Cross	Eoin Harty	$182,000
22	Blue Laser	Mark Casse	$143,502
23	Flashpoint	Richard Dutrow, Jr.	$140,000
24	Derby Kitten	Michael Maker	$120,000
25	Mr. Commons	John Shirreffs	$120,000
26	Sway Away	Jeff Bonde	$111,500

Get all of Carlo Campanella's winning Kentucky Derby picks at Vegas Experts!

Bodog Sportsbook – Grand Slam Parlay Contest

2011-05-05T00:25:00.000-07:00

The best way to bet on Major League Baseball is back and only Bodog, the most trusted source for online sports betting, could make it this intriguing. Stick around the sportsbook this summer to take part in Bodog’s Grand Slam Parlay contest. Only at Bodog does every MLB parlay bet earn bettors a chance to win weekly cash prizes.

Sure, betting on baseball is a worthwhile challenge in itself, but it’s no secret how much different betting on four-game parlays can be. Instead of choosing a single winner, bettors’ fates depend on a combination of four games. Think you can handle the pressure of four individual outcomes?

The best part about the Grand Slam Parlay contest is that, win or lose, every four-game parlay bet played of $10 or more will earn bettors points. The top 50 bettors with the most points each week will earn a share of $5000. That means up to $1000 just for being a weekly winner.

There’s a reason Bodog is the most trusted name when it comes to online sports betting and 16 years of success certainly doesn’t hurt. Why bet anywhere else when the Grand Slam Parlay contest promises cash even for unsuccessful plays?

Nothing quite beats the thrill of a four-game parlay, except perhaps the feeling that comes from walking away with a coveted parlay victory. MLB parlay betting might not be for the faint of heart, but the payout certainly makes up for it.

With the Grand Slam Parlay contest, bettors have a backup plan in the event that their parlays don’t pan out. More parlays attempted simply mean more points, and more points mean cash.

Sign up for an account with Bodog’s online sportsbook and start building up points now. Though the contest runs weekly, a parlay bet with your name on it might be fast approaching.

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Lenny Del Genio – NBA Playoff Betting Results

2011-05-05T00:05:00.000-07:00

If NBA bettors were expecting favorites to turn things around in the 2nd Round of the NBA Playoffs, then they are still waiting following the conclusion of a quartet of Game One’s.

Not only did three underdogs cash in the four Game One’s, but they all won outright. The only Game 1 favorite to cover the pointspread was the Miami Heat, who all of a sudden look like the best team in basketball. After all this, could the Heat actually win the NBA Finals?

Underdogs went 26-16-1 ATS in the first round of the playoffs. There were no first round series where the favorite showed a profit, although three of the eight saw an even 3-3 ATS split. Those series were: Memphis/San Antonio (surprising considering an 8 seed beat a 1 seed in 6 games), Dallas/Portland and LA Lakers/New Orleans. Note that’s including the Spurs/Grizzlies Game 5 as a ½ point cover for San Antonio.

So, after 47 total playoff games, underdogs are now 29-17-1 ATS, which is pretty dominant. Just about all of the betting lines for Game 2 of the four respective series are similar to what we saw in Game 1, so the question now is this the time to change course with your NBA picks?

Under bettors really cleaned up in the first round of the playoffs as well, particularly the second weekend where all eight games went Under the total. Mirroring the underdogs’ record, Under bettors went 26-17 in Round 1 with only the Memphis/San Antonio series seeing more Overs (four) cash than Unders (two).

Again, it was the Atlanta/Orlando series that was the real outlier here. In five of the six games, the Under cashed. Underdogs were also 5-1 ATS in that series.

It appears as if the tide may be turning here, however. All four second round Game 1’s went Over the total and Game 2’s have a history of going Over. As a matter of fact, all Playoff Game 2’s, and we’re talking any round, have gone Over 59% of the time the last five years.

Why is no one talking about the fact that the Dallas Mavericks have now covered 11 straight games?

NBA Playoffs Betting Blog

2011-04-28T06:42:00.000-07:00

by Vegas Experts

After a 3-0 ATS Tuesday sweep by NBA Playoff favorites, we saw things revert right back on Wednesday as underdogs covered two of three games with San Antonio ending up as either a cover or a push depending on when you bet the game.

That leaves NBA Playoff favorites at a money burning 11-25-3 ATS with only a few games remaining in the first round.

We also saw all eight playoff games stay Under the total this past weekend. Overall, 20 of the first 30 games saw Under players cash. Since that time, it’s pretty much been a case of “six to one and half a dozen to the other” with five games going Over and four Under.

One second round playoff matchup is already set and it will easily be the most anticipated matchup with the Boston Celtics taking on the Miami Heat, a series many will classify as the “real” Eastern Conference Finals. Game One is Sunday at 3:30 ET on ABC in Miami and the Heat have already opened as 4.5-point favorites at Bodog Sportsbook.

Keep an eye out for MTi Sports’ winning NBA selections. The PhD Scientists went 4-0 on Wednesday and are now 17-6 overall with NBA Playoffs Picks, including 10-1 with totals! MTi sells all of their selections for just $20 guaranteed!

NBA Playoff Betting

2011-04-26T04:58:00.000-07:00

In our previous blog, we went over some NBA betting trends that had developed through the first two games of each best of seven series. Well, those same trends continued through the weekend.

Overall this year in the NBA playoffs, underdogs are hitting at a phenomenal 22-7-1 ATS pace. They were 7-1 ATS this past weekend with the only exception being Boston over New York on Sunday. It was the second straight weekend where the dogs barked to the tune of 7-1 ATS. We have seen an underdog win a game straight up already ten times in the playoffs and again, most of those came this past weekend.

Under bettors really cleaned up in the eight Game 2’s, going 7-1. However, they outdid themselves this past weekend as all eight games stayed Under the total! Twenty of the thirty playoff games have now stayed Under the total, including 15 of the last 22.

Another interesting trend developed this past Saturday as four teams had an opportunity to win or tie the game in the final three seconds and on all four occasions failed. Then, on Sunday, we saw the Miami Heat, and in particular LeBron James, fail again in the waning seconds of a game. Philadelphia outscored the Heat 10-0 in the final 1:30 and take note that Miami is now a league worst 1 for 19 from the field this season when tied or down by three points or less and there are 10 or less seconds remaining in a game. It’s interesting to note that the Celtics are fourth worst on that list at 2 of 14.

Thursday was also an interesting day of NBA betting as all three games saw the ATS result decided by one point or less.

The margin for error is so small this NBA Playoff season so be sure to check out winning basketball picks at Vegas Experts.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets

2011-04-26T04:44:00.000-07:00

In what was billed as a competitive series, the Oklahoma City will try and sweep the Denver Nuggets right out of the playoffs Monday night. They'll have to do so on the road, however, where they are currently listed as three-point underdogs. For over/under bettors, the total has opened at 206 points.

Oklahoma City has covered the spread in each of the last two games of this series, first winning big at home in Game 2 (106-89, -4.5) and then outright at Denver for Game 3 (97-94, +5). The Thunder really seems to have the Nuggets number this year, having taken six of the seven overall matchups (5-2 ATS). The lone loss did occur here in Denver, back on January 19th, in a 112-107 win by the Nuggets as 3.5-point chalk.

Mirroring what we have seen so far in the NBA playoffs, the underdog has covered two of the three games so far in this series and two of the games have also stayed Under the total. All eight playoff games this past weekend stayed under the total and underdogs were 7-1 ATS.

Overall this year in the playoffs, underdogs are hitting at a phenomenal 22-7-1 ATS pace. Twenty of the thirty games have also stayed Under the total.

Saturday's loss may not bode well for the Nuggets, at least according to our NBA betting trends. Over the last two seasons, Denver is just 2-11 at the betting window when coming off a home loss by three points or less. This could be the seventh time in eight years that the Nuggets are eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Free throw shooting has been an issue for Denver in this series. They are making just 68.7 percent of their attempts from the charity stripe in this series.

Oklahoma City is on a 23-12 ATS run as a road dog of six points or less.

Vegas Experts is your home for winning NBA Playoff Picks

Oakland A's at Los Angeles Angels

2011-04-26T04:26:00.000-07:00

Runs should be at a premium Monday night as AL West rivals meet in Anaheim with the A's taking on the Angels. The pitching matchup is superb with Oakland's Gio Gonzalez taking on Jered Weaver of Los Angeles. The total is low at 6.5 runs and oddsmakers are giving a big edge to the Halos, installing them as -150 favorites on the betting line.

Weaver has been outstanding this year, clearly establishing himself as an early American League Cy Young candidate. He is 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA so far and he's made just one home start. One cause for concern, however, has to be his 0-3 record vs. the A's last year with a 5.40 ERA.

Oakland's Gio Gonzalez may not have the won-loss record to match Weaver, but he has been equally effective with a 1.80 ERA in four starts (2-2 team start record). Gonzalez has a career 4-1 TSR vs. the Angels with a 3.29 ERA, including two wins in 2010.

Helping Gonzalez is the fact that the Angels come into this game cold. They come off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, including back to back shutout losses by a combined score of 12-0. They are hitting just .192 at home so far while averaging 2.2 runs per game.

Therefore, Weaver will again have to be at his best. Over the last two seasons, 14 of his 15 home starts have gone Under the total. Oakland is 0-11 on the road in American League games vs. a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better. Weaver has a WHIP of 0.764 in his five starts.

Oakland was also shutout in back to back games in its last series, but rallied to win both Saturday and Sunday against the Seattle Mariners to get back over .500 for the year.

The Angels have won 23 of the last 38 matchups head to head with Oakland, yet have actually lost money to the A's here at home over that time frame thanks to the juice.

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

2011-04-26T03:52:00.000-07:00

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to continue their impressive run of success in Petco Park Friday night behind Cole Hamels, as the World Series favorites are $1.25 favorites against the San Diego Padres.

Last night saw the Phillies win for an eighth straight time in San Diego, riding Roy Oswalt’s arm to a 3-0 victory as $1.13 favorites on the betting line. Oswalt and three relievers combined to allow just four hits and Oswalt himself allowed just one through six innings of work. Dating back to 2008, Philadelphia has gone 12-1 here at Petco Park.

San Diego’s offense has really struggled in 2011 as last night marked the fifth time they were shut out this season, which is the most in MLB. Overall, they are barely averaging three runs per game. They are even worse at home and tonight could be tough against Hamels, a lefty, as the Padres are scoring only 2.7 runs per game vs. southpaws thus far.

Mirroring his team’s success, Hamels has pitched very well here in San Diego, which also happens to be his hometown. In four starts at Petco Park, he has allowed just five earned runs in 28.7 IP. Overall, Hamels has posted a 2.75 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Padres.

The Padres will counter their own lefty, Clayton Richard, who has been far more effective at home this season compared to on the road. Despite having nothing to show for it, Richard has posted a 1.04 ERA in two home starts this season. That being said, he must bounce back from a bad effort that saw him allow six runs in 5.3 IP vs. the Houston Astros on Sunday.

San Diego ranks dead last in MLB with only 60 runs scored and has been outscored by the Phillies 36-13 in the last 13 matchups between the teams here at Petco Park.

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Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals

2011-04-19T22:01:00.000-07:00

Monday, April 18th, 2011 MLB Picks
By Vegas Experts

In the five-team American League Central, it was expected to be a three-horse race for the pennant before the season got underway. Two weeks into the season and it’s the “other” two teams competing for first place. Surprising Cleveland and Kansas City start a four-game set on Monday with the visiting Indians currently a small road favorite with a pitching matchup of Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 5.03 ERA) vs. Kyle Davies (1-1, 9.00 ERA).

After getting crushed in its first two games (allowed 23 total runs) by the White Sox, Cleveland has won 10 of its last 12 and is off a three-game sweep of Baltimore over the weekend. The market has yet to really adjust to the Indians’ winning ways as they have been favored in only two games all season and yesterday’s betting line of -135 was the highest of the season.

Kansas City had a four-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 3-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners as -120 favorites. The Royals are 7-3 at Kauffman Stadium this season, but over the last three seasons are a horrific 5-30 after allowing three runs or less in back to back ballgames.

The Indians were 10-8 vs. the Royals in 2010 and really cleaned up against their division rivals late in the season, taking eight of the last 11 meetings. Twelve of last season’s matchups went Over the total with one push.

Cleveland starter Carrasco has pitched well in his last two outings, allowing just four runs off nine hits. The team did lose his last start – 4-3 to the Angels – and two of the Tribe’s four losses this season have come with him starting. Carrasco has faced the Royals twice in his career with very different results. In 2009, he was on the wrong end of a 7-0 decision while in his lone start against them last year, the Indians won 11-4. Surprisingly, Carrasco’s individual numbers weren’t much different in the two starts. He went six innings in both outings and allowed eight hits each time. He allowed five runs – one unearned – in the loss and just three in the win.

Cleveland’s bullpen has been outstanding so far this year, compiling a 1.93 ERA in road games.

Kansas City starter Davies has yet to pitch well this season as he’s allowed at least four runs in every start and comes in with a 9.00 ERA. Davies actually lost to Carrasco last year and overall had a 0-3 team start record vs. Cleveland in 2010. He did beat Carrasco in 2009, so interestingly enough, both of Carrasco’s career starts vs. the Royals have come against Davies.

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NBA: Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

2011-04-19T21:27:00.000-07:00

by Eddie Keen

The NBA Playoffs don’t start until Saturday, but with two days remaining in the regular season the first round Eastern Conference playoff matchups are already set. Here are some quick breakdowns of the four series matchups: top seed Chicago faces off against eight seed Indiana, two seed Miami takes on seven seed Philadelphia, three seed Boston goes against six seed New York, and four seed Orlando plays five seed Atlanta.

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

The Chicago Bulls are 3-1 straight up and against the spread so far this season when playing the Pacers and the Over/Under results are split at 2-2. The Bulls are going to have no problem knocking out the Pacers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Futures odds for Chicago to win the Eastern Conference are 7/4 and to win the NBA Championship its 7/2, which could turn out to be a good bet. The Pacers have a huge 100/1 return to win the Eastern Conference and an even larger, nearly impossible 250/1 odds to win it all. You’re better off throwing the money away then wasting your time putting it on that wager.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

The Heat have the same 7/4 odds to win the Eastern Conference as Chicago but they have better odds win the NBA Finals with 10/3 odds. The 76ers are not far ahead of the Pacers to win the Eastern Conference as they have 60/1 odds and they are not a strong NBA Championship bet as they are 150/1. The Heat have a perfect 3-0 straight up record against the 76ers so far this season and they have covered two of those three games at the betting window. The Total has gone under the number in two of those three games. In all three matchups, the Heat have beat Philadelphia by at least nine points. Expect some big lines in these matchups.

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

The Celtics also have a perfect 3-0 straight up record when playing the New York Knicks but they have only covered one of those three matchups going 1-2 ATS. Out of those three games, the total has gone over the number twice. These teams will meet again in the regular season finale. The Celtics have 3/1 odds to win the Eastern Conference and 15/2 odds to win the NBA Finals. The Knicks have 25/1 Odds to win the Eastern Conference and are ahead of five seed Atlanta with 45/1 odds to win the Championship. If the spreads are large enough, taking the points with New York in some of these first round playoffs games might be a strong underdog bet considering the team’s 26-9 ATS record when taking points this season.

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

The Orlando Magic have 9/1 odds to win the Eastern Conference while the Hawks are the same as the 76ers with 60/1 odds to win the Conference. Orlando is 20/1 to win the NBA Finals and the Hawks have the same odds as the Memphis Grizzlies at 125/1. There could be some value in taking the Hawks as a dog in this round since they have covered all four games against the spread vs. the Magic this year, but don’t forget about last season when Atlanta got swept by Orlando in the second round and lost by an average of 25 points per game, a NBA playoffs record. Atlanta has won three of the four regular season matchups straight up and the total has gone over the number in all four games. Be careful not to fall into the bookies trap by betting a low total over as the number as the O/U lines are going to be set extremely low just to tempt you into playing the Over.

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NBA Western Conference Playoff Previews

2011-04-19T21:04:00.000-07:00

by Lenny Del Genio

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The Western Conference Playoffs should prove to be a bigger crapshoot than what we’ve seen in previous years; this despite the fact that the two-time defending champion Lakers again come in as the favorite. However, the Lakers are not the top seed (that’s the Spurs) nor are they the trendy pick (that’s the Thunder). Below you will find our series by series breakdowns:

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies basically were asking for this series as they didn’t want a first round playoff matchup with the Lakers and essentially tanked it down the stretch to ensure they’d finish 8th. However, as the old saying goes, “be careful what you wish for.” Memphis has never won a playoff game, let alone a playoff series, going 0-12 straight up in three all-time appearances.

That said, the Grizzlies were a perfect 4-0 ATS during the regular season against San Antonio, winning two of those games outright, both at home. Memphis owns the best pointspread record in the league at 51-30-1 ATS and they were devastating as an underdog. Prior to their late season tank job, the Grizz were 22-9-1 ATS when taking points. Despite owning the best SU record in the league for most of the year, San Antonio only has the fourth best betting odds to win the NBA Championship at 7/2. This is not your usual Spurs team under HC Popovich as they averaged 103.7 PPG.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs (7) New Orleans Hornets

Not many basketball bettors thought the Hornets would be a playoff team coming into the year. New Orleans draws the “short straw,” however, and has to play the Lakers in the first round. Los Angeles was 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread vs. New Orleans this year and will be heavily favored here as they are the sportsbooks choice to win a third consecutive Larry O’ Brien Trophy. They have opened as big ten point favorites for Game One.

Do not be surprised to see Game 1 stay Under the total, at least according to our NBA betting trends. New Orleans is a perfect 11-0 Under past two seasons when playing on the road and off a division game. The Lakers, meanwhile, are 7-0 Under this season when off a road win that saw them score at least 110 points. Neither team finished the regular season well. The Hornets lost their final three games and the Lakers lost five of six (had previously won 15 of 16).

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers

This will be the most popular “upset” pick of the first round of the NBA playoffs and the Game 1 betting odds reflect that with the Mavs favored by only 5.5 points. Dallas actually has worse NBA Championship odds than does the four seed Oklahoma City (18/1 compared to 12/1). The Blazers were the one lower seed out West that the top teams were hoping to avoid.

These teams met four times during the regular season and the home team won straight up every time. However, Portland was 3-1 ATS in those games. Three of the four games also went Over the total. Dallas was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs last season and Portland did win on the road in Game One of the first round of the playoffs last year.

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets

This should be the highest scoring of the eight first round playoff series. It is the only matchup where both teams average more than 100 PPG. Other than the Knicks, the Nuggets are the worst defensive club in the draw (102.7 PPG). Carmelo Anthony seems to be the unifying element there as Denver was much improved on the defensive end following his departure. Denver also finished as the #1 offensive team in the NBA and Oklahoma City ranks third among playoff teams.

Nuggets HC George Karl made headlines a week ago when he publicly stated that he preferred to play Dallas in the first round as opposed to Oklahoma City. It remains to be seen if that was a case of gamesmenship from Karl or simply a reflection of his team’s 1-3 SU/ATS record vs. the Thunder this year. Interestingly, the last three meetings all went Under the total. While Oklahoma City has clearly defined superstars in Durant and Westbrook, Denver had nine different players lead the team in scoring in individual games after trading away ‘Melo.

Get every NBA playoff pick from Lenny Del Genio at Vegas Experts.

NBA Playoffs: The Value of Role Players

2011-04-19T19:42:00.000-07:00

by Scott Spreitzer

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Star players get all the headlines, but the balance between star players and role players is essential for winning teams. Role players are easily overlooked. Those are the guys who do the dirty work. I don't mean they play dirty, but they do grunt work like boxing out on the boards, fighting for a loose rebound, diving on the floor to keep a ball alive, taking a charging foul. And sometimes they have to sit and watch and keep their mouths shut when other guys are playing well. That's not always easy for pro athletes with large bank accounts and bigger egos.

I saw Larry Bird play when he was in college at Indiana State and I recall something he said about one of the unsung role players being one of the most important players on his team. This may be shocking to some, as Bird was the star (and only NBA talent on that Sycamores team), but he understood how valuable role players are. And it's true: One guy can't defeat five.

Take a look at the San Antonio Spurs. Star Tim Duncan has actually taken a back seat a bit this season, third in scoring, content to be more of a role player and rebounder while playing fewer minutes. He's as team-oriented a player as you can find and has no problem watching Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili lead the team in scoring. In addition, the Spurs have exceptional depth with hard working role players like George Hill, Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair and veteran Antonio McDyess. McDyess has been a valuable veteran who doesn't complain, works the glass and doesn't mind shifting from the bench, to a starting role, then back to the bench whenever needed.

The Celtics are going to be an interesting team to watch in the postseason. There's no denying the talent and star power on this club, but they have been disjointed and out of sync ever since center Kendrick Perkins was traded. Perkins was the ultimate selfless role player, content on boxing out, rebounding and defending the other team's star big men. Of course, on offense he had hands of stone, but it was a good fit as Boston didn't need him to score with Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen on the floor.

But Big Perk filled a valuable role and many have different reasons as to why the Celtics have slipped from the No. 1 seed in the East to the No. 3, with inexplicable losses to Washington (twice), Memphis, Charlotte, Houston, New Jersey and the Clippers - all but one since Perkins was traded. Granted, the problem in many of those games was offensive, but the chemistry was clearly affected with Perk gone. We shall see in the postseason if this team has just been playing possum, if they can play more consistently, or if they truly miss the role playing big man.

And the Oklahoma City Thunder don't want to give Perkins back! He's been an excellent fit for the Thunder, playing defense along with 6-10 Serge Ibaka, which frees up Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to strut their stuff on offense. Oklahoma City has been on a 16-3 SU, 12-6-1 run, winning four times as a dog (4-1 SU/ATS as a dog), in addition to bringing a 12-6 run under the total into the playoffs. Oddsmakers haven't quite caught up to the fact that Oklahoma City is a much improved defensive team, holding 12 of 17 teams under 100 points to end the regular season.

Another interesting story this season is the play of the Dallas Mavericks. They have stars like Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry, but it's the defense that has so impressed this season, ranking 10th in the NBA in points allowed. The difference has been newcomer 7-foot-1 Tyson Chandler (10.2 points, 9.4 rebounds per game), a guy who has always been content to block shots, rebound and play defense. He's not a star, but like Perkins, is a valuable piece of the low post puzzle.

He won't stand out in highlight reels, but quietly is an effective role playing piece that has improved the Mavericks defense. That kind of depth and effective role playing is one reason Dallas has almost the same home record as they do on the road. Impressive, as that's the best road record in the league. Note that the Mavericks are 8-2-1 under the total their last 11 games as a favorite.

Role players have been a huge key to the surprising Denver Nuggets, as well. After trading Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, the team was devoid of star power. Yet, they've been impressive both straight up and against the number. Why? Check out the depth on this team, bringing Chris Anderson, Ray Felton, J.R. Smith and Al Harrington off the bench! Harrington and Felton can start (and have in their careers), but are valuable weapons coming in off the pine. In a sense, George Karl has two or three sixth men that he can throw at the other team, where most teams are lucky to have one.

Note that the Nuggets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. It's not always easy to teach players with big egos to understand the value of role players, but they can be just as important as the stars. Just ask the 2004 Pistons, the 2007 Spurs and the 2008 Celtics, teams loaded with unselfish role players who all celebrated NBA titles.

Get all of Scott Spreitzer's NBA Playoff Picks at Vegas Experts.

NBA Playoffs: The Value of Coaching

2011-04-19T00:39:00.000-07:00

by Big Al McMordie

Get all of Big Al McMordie's NBA playoff picks at Vegas Experts.

Good coaches are tough to beat, especially at crunch time, while bad coaches will beat themselves. This is true in every sport and it's important to understand the value of coaching. A good coach needs talent to win, of course, and the best college coaches are also good recruiters. But winning attracts talent, and good coaches are the foundation for a winning program. Great coaches are also rare, be it football or pro and college basketball.

A good coach brings many things to the table beyond recruiting talented players. Smart coaches bring discipline, defense and sound fundamentals. They also know how to teach and help develop confidence, which is especially essential with college athletes.

UConn made just enough plays at the end to top Kentucky in the Final Four. Why is it that John Calipari's teams always seem to lack the right stuff at crunch time? His Memphis team with Derrick Rose should have beaten Kansas for a title in 2009 only to fold up late, and now his Wildcats team was favored but took some ill-advised shots in the final minute as UConn survived. That put UConn on a 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS run, winning again as a dog under Jim Calhoun (and the Huskies extended it to 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS with a win over Butler in the Finals).

Some people think that former UCLA coach John Wooden won because the best players in the country wanted to go to UCLA. This overlooks the fact that he was brilliant coach and teacher. Folks remember the UCLA dynasty that won 10 NCAA championships in 12 years and recall the great centers he had in Lew Alcindor and Bill Walton. But people forget that Wooden won NCAA titles before those two arrived on the UCLA campus, and Wooden won after they left. The Bruins won it all in 1975, a year after Walton graduated, which was also Wooden's final year as coach. In the 35 years since his retirement, UCLA has a single basketball national title (1995).

Wooden was a master at teaching the dynamics of team play and defense. He also ran his players hard in practice so that they were the best-conditioned athletes in the country. Players used to say the practices were tougher than the games, so when they took the court on game night it was easier than that week's practice.

He was also a leader who commanded respect. When star center Walton wanted to grow a beard and no longer wished to comply with Wooden's policy of no facial hair, Walton gave a long thought-out speech on why he should be able to sport a beard. Wooden calmly listened and answered, "That's fine, Bill. You can grow your beard as you wish - and we'll miss having you on the basketball team the rest of the season." Walton chose to shave and keep playing. You hear about athletes with self-centered agendas and big egos mouthing-off to coaches these days, but it didn't happen on Wooden's teams - he was in command and his word was law.

Think for a moment about what Wooden accomplished - 10 NCAA basketball championships in 12 seasons! To win one or two titles is difficult enough, especially in college where top athletes are gone after three or four years. But to win that many - and seven in a row - it also takes a great head coach.

I recall in 1982 when Jerry West - then general manager of the Los Angeles Lakers - had made a trade that turned into the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. The two best players in the country in college that were available were Georgia's Dominique Wilkins and North Carolina's James Worthy, in that order. West surprised some by drafting Worthy No. 1. Worthy ended up winning three NBA titles and was MVP of the 1988 NBA Finals, while Wilkins never got a ring. West once explained that part of his thinking in drafting Worthy ahead of Wilkins was that "Big Game James," as he was later dubbed, had played college ball under Dean Smith. West was smart enough to trust his own instincts and draft a player who was more fundamentally sound under a great college coach.

Good coaches bring discipline. This means teaching players how to react in every situation on the court. If a team is in a tight game, say, tied in the final thirty seconds, a disciplined team doesn't panic because it's been through it many times in practice. Players will emulate their coach - and a good coach is calm and focused at crunch time.

Great players are also sound fundamentally. They know how to properly use their feet to play defense, or how to box out under the boards, or how to set a proper pick to unselfishly allow their teammate to get open for a shot. This doesn't happen by accident - it's all a result of proper coaching.

I mentioned James Worthy earlier, and Jerry West saw things in Worthy that others may not have seen, such as sound fundamentals like boxing out, how to read and exploit defenses and even free throw shooting. How many times do games and point spreads come down to free throw shooting at the end? All the time! When your team is up by five in the final seconds, wouldn't you prefer to have players at the line who are good free throw shooters? You most certainly would if you're holding a ticket with that team at -4.5! Defense and fundamental play are essential for teams - and sports bettors - and you'd much rather have fundamentally sound players on your side.

Looking at Shaquille O'Neal's pro career for a moment and he has had nine NBA coaches. O'Neal's first three coaches were poor while at Orlando (Brian Hill) and Los Angeles (Del Harris and Kurt Rambis). O'Neal got to the Finals once (1995) where his team was favored but lost in four straight to a more disciplined and better coached Houston Rocket team (with Coach Rudy Tomjanovich). While with the Lakers, his teams were talented, but notorious for lazy defense while falling short in the playoffs under Harris and Rambis, and were swept 4-0 by Gregg Popovich's well-coached Spurs in 1999. It wasn't until Phil Jackson arrived in 2000, bringing defense, teamwork, game adjustments and leadership, that O'Neal finally got a ring (three rings, actually).

He then got another ring in Miami with Coach Pat Riley. A strong coach who could teach was a key that O'Neal and also young players like Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade needed to reach the mountaintop. Coaches can also help teams with their confidence, which is especially essential in college basketball. You'll notice many basketball teams are able to win at home but not on the road. Just about any coach can get a team to play hard in front of the home fans, but one sign of a strong coach is getting teams - in college and the pros - to win on the road.

Defense is another sign of good coaching. One of the best is Popovich, who has coached the Spurs to four NBA titles and gets his team to play great defense night after night, home and away (until this year, anyway, as their defense has slipped a bit). But they still play team basketball, and Popovich has the Spurs poised to get the #1 overall seed in the NBA. Contrast their success with a team like the Indiana Pacers when disastrous Isiah Thomas was coaching there: The Pacers were 34-10 at home (26-18 ATS) but a very different team on the road (16-28 SU, 17-26-1 ATS). As I mentioned, it's not difficult to get your team to play hard at home, but a competent coach can get players to raise their game on the road.

The truth is, most great players don't make great coaches, or even good ones. Playing basketball at a high level takes God-given athletic talent. Effective coaching requires the ability to communicate and teach. Wooden always considered himself a teacher. As do guys like Popovich, and Larry Brown.

Do you know what Hall of Fame basketball coach Red Auerbach majored in at college before turning to coaching? He earned a master's degree in teaching from George Washington. Yes, great players are essential to winning. But so are great coaches, and don't overlook what they bring to a team or their importance to winning - straight up and against the number. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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TRIPLE EXPOSURE

2011-04-19T00:01:00.000-07:00

by Marc Lawrence

Vegas Experts is your home NBA Playoff handicapping. Check out our NBA playoff trends, NBA playoff odds and save 20% off our NBA playoff picks when you become a member!

With the NBA regular season drawing to the finish line, and while we await the start of the 2011 NBA playoffs, let examine a favorite sports handicapping ploy that has served me well over the years at this stage of the campaign.

It all centers around teams concluding the season that will be playing with same season triple revenge. This particular handicap works for several reasons

Trips Is Enough

The fact of the matter is it’s not easy for one team to take another out four times in a row during the same season, especially during the late, late stages of the season.

According to our database, since 1991, NBA teams playing with same season triple revenge are 57-100 SU and 84-65-1 ATS during the final two games of the season. That’s a sharp 56.3% win percentage for these hungry rats.

Better yet, dress them up as dogs in these games and they improve to 68-49-1 ATS, a 58.1% winning level.

The other reason these triple revenging dogs bark loud is complacency. Thus, reason two is -

Playing Down To The Level Of The Opposition

Most teams that have managed to triple up one opponent over the course of the season are either playoff bound or ultra-confident, whereas the victims are busy making tee-times.

Thus these opponents often times find themselves playing down to the level of the thrice-beaten opponent.

And if these season-ending triple revengers were dogs of eight or more points in their previous game they are a super-sharp 28-11 ATS in these games.

FYI: there is an eye-opening 17-1 ATS winning angle inside the 28-11 situation outlined above. I’ll save that beauty and reveal the parameters when and if any such situations arise this week inside one of my Guaranteed Best Bet selections.

Mark Them Down

Meanwhile, here are the six teams that will close out the 2011 season looking to avenge hat-trick defeats:

4/11 – Houston, Sacramento and Toronto
4/13 – New York, Phoenix and Toronto

Don’t trip up. Keep an eye on them and act accordingly. I’ll return with more NBA playoff handicapping later in the week…

Get all of Marc Lawrence's NBA playoff picks at Vegas Experts.

NBA ZIG ZAGS… Up In Smoke?

2011-04-18T22:57:00.000-07:00

by Marc Lawrence

Vegas Experts is your home NBA Playoff handicapping. Check out our NBA playoff trends, NBA playoff odds and save 20% off our NBA playoff picks when you become a member!

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. The premise is simple: ‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these NBA playoff picks held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are NBA Playoff pointspread results for Zig Zags from 1991 through 2010.

Game on

Overall: 642-566-29
Game Two: 156-133-12
Game Three: 169-127-4
Game Four: 133-132-5
Game Five: 90-100-5
Game Six: 62-53-1
Game Seven: 23-21-2

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Three where they become a 57% point spread play on the blind. That’s especially true for home teams that were limited to 75 or fewer points in Game Two as these guys get really stoked, going 13-2 in these contests.

Round ‘em up

Round One: 303-261-14
Round Two: 194-174-7
Round Three: 96-90-6
Round Four: 49-41-2

While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it’s interesting to note that the largest profits are derived by home teams in Round One as they are 160-121-8, including 85-58-5 when playing off a double-digit defeat.

Planting the seed

No. 1 Seeds: 90-80-4
No. 2 Seeds: 83-63-3
No. 3 Seeds: 70-65-8
No. 4 Seeds: 65-58-1
No. 5 Seeds: 51-47
No. 6 Seeds: 44-44-1
No. 7 Seeds: 34-46-3
No. 8 Seeds: 43-36-4-3

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.

Living up to its billing, No. 2 tries harder.

Burn baby burn

Like all things that are popular, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags start to go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 10 years (2001-2010), going 331-317-9 – or 51.0% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-19 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

Talk about a buzz kill.

Higher than a kite

So then where is it we can still expect to catch the best buzz possible with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Twist these two up for size and remember no bogarting:

1) Double Digit Dogs are 40-19-1 and,
2) favorites of more than four points off a loss of 20 or more are 29-8.

After all, they make the best sensimilla, if you know what I mean…

Get all of Marc Lawrence's NBA playoff picks at Vegas Experts.

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles(Thursday, April 7th, 2011 MLB Picks)

2011-04-13T00:46:00.000-07:00

In a division that boasts three of the four previous American League Champions, it is the Baltimore Orioles that find themselves as the surprise leader in the American League East just one week into the 2011 Major League Baseball regular season. After suffering their first loss of the season yesterday, the O’s will look to bounce back tonight against the Detroit Tigers.

Oddsmakers have opened the betting line for this contest with the Orioles as a solid $1.40 favorite. This is only the second time in five games this season that Baltimore will enter as the betting favorite. They won the other, beating these Tigers 5-1 in the home opener on Monday. That being said, the club is only 9-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the last three seasons.

After Orioles pitching had combined to allow just four runs total in the first four games, they got shelled for seven runs last night as starter Brad Bergesen was unable to last past the fourth inning. Previously, Baltimore starters had allowed just two earned runs over 26 innings.

Tonight, O’s manager Buck Showalter will give the baseball back to Chris Tillman, who was outstanding in his first outing of the season. Tillman allowed no hits over six innings of work last Saturday vs. Tampa Bay, but was denied the no-no when he was pulled due to a pitch count that had reached 101. While Tillman was just 2-5 with a 5.87 ERA in 11 big league starts last season, he did fare well against Detroit with a 2-0 team start record and 1.32 ERA. As a team, Detroit hit just .091 against him in the two games.

Even with last night’s win, the Tigers are just 22-41 on the road vs. right handed starters since the start of last season.

The Tigers will counter with Brad Penny, who was terrible in his first start of the season, which also came last Saturday vs. the New York Yankees. Penny allowed three runs in each of the first two innings and was pulled after only 4.3 innings of work having allowed eight runs on seven hits and four walks.

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NY Yankees at Boston Red Sox (Sunday, April 10th, 2011 MLB Picks)

2011-04-13T00:34:00.000-07:00

The Boston Red Sox hope to turn around a dreadful 1-7 start to their season when they finish off a weekend set with the rival Yankees Sunday night. The only problem is that the oddsmakers don't like their chances up against New York ace CC Sabathia, installing them as the underdog behind Josh Beckett, who is no longer the reliable hurler we've been accustomed to.

After taking Friday's series opener by a score of 9-6, there was some hope in Boston following a shocking 0-6 start, but that hope quickly turned back into despair following yesterday's 9-4 loss. Four Yankees homered and Robinson Cano continues to destroy the Red Sox in Fenway.

Only Houston (-26) has a worse run differential in all of baseball compared to Boston.

Things are not likely to turn around here considering the way Josh Beckett has pitched against the Yankees in recent last year when he posted a 10.04 ERA in five starts while allowing 40 runs and nine HR. Beckett was also roughed up in his season debut by Cleveland, allowing three runs in just five innings of work.

Sabathia, meanwhile, has pitched well vs. Boston in the past, having not lost a decision to them since the summer of '09. He is coming off an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings vs. Minnesota, but the bullpen could not come through for him.

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Cleveland Indians at LA Angels (Monday, April 11th, 2011 MLB Picks)

2011-04-13T00:14:00.000-07:00

Do you know what Major League Baseball team is currently on a seven-game win streak? The surprising answer is the Cleveland Indians, who after an 0-2 start, have swept both the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners. Tonight, the Tribe is in Anaheim to play the Angels, who have won back to back games. Oddsmakers are giving no respect to the Indians' seven-game streak, installing them as big +165 underdogs on the betting line.

The Indians have not won eight straight games since August 2008 and are off to their best start since 2002, when they began the year 11-1. Their pitching staff has keyed the turnaround. After allowing 23 total runs in the first two games, the staff ERA is 1.86 during the win streak. Offensively, they are averaging 5.8 runs per game. They outscored Seattle 20-8 in the three-game sweep despite being underdogs in all three contests.

Cleveland will start Mitch Talbot tonight. The righty did not last long last Wednesday vs. Boston, allowing two runs and five hits in 4.3 IP, but his team got the 8-4 win. Talbot has faced the Angels only one time in his career and he pitched well, allowing just one run in 6.3 IP. The Indians won that game 9-2 as a +140 dog.

Los Angeles counters with Tyler Chatwood, who will be making his MLB debut. Originally, the plan was to go with Dan Haren, but he was called for duty in the 14th inning of Saturday's 6-5 win over Toronto. Chatwood has just 6.6 IP of Triple A experience. He is highly touted having won the club's Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2010. Obviously, the oddsmakers are giving him plenty of experience.

The Halos will also be without SS Eric Aybar, who has been placed on the disabled list. The team has won four its last five overall after starting the year by losing three of four at Kansas City to start the season.

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LA Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (Sunday, April 12, 2011 MLB Picks)

2011-04-12T23:55:00.000-07:00

Off back to back 6-1 losses, the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants turn to ace Tim Lincecum on Tuesday against the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. Lincecum himself will be looking for a reversal of fortune as he took the loss on Opening Day to LA despite allowing no earned runs over the course of seven innings. The oddsmakers like his chances as they've opened the Giants as $1.70 favorites on the betting line.

Lincecum has picked up right where he left off last postseason, allowing just one earned run and eight hits in 14 IP thus far. After taking the loss vs. the Dodgers, the former 2-time Cy Young Award Winner allowed just one run on three hits in an 8-4 win over the San Diego Padres. Lincecum seemed to have far more overpowering stuff in his second start, considering he struck out 13 Padres hitters.

He'll be opposed tonight by Chad Billingsley, who has been far less effective this season with an 8.00 ERA through two starts. Last time out, he only lasted three innings and the team lost 7-5 to the Colorado Rockies. He is, however, 7-3 with a 2.73 ERA in his career vs. the Giants and did beat them back on April 1st, allowing just three runs on six hits.

Lincecum, however, has never lost to the Dodgers here at home. He also owns a 6-0 team start record following a start where he did not walk a batter.

As a team, the Giants are very good when priced at -150 or higher, winning 41 of 58 games.

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NCAA Bracketology Preview (part 3)

2011-03-01T03:39:00.000-08:00

March Madness and the NCAA Tournament are unquestionably the peak time for college basketball betting. In our first NCAA Bracketology preview, we told you about our weekly free newsletter and annual Bracketology article, which will become available on March 15th. In our second blog, we discussed how certain seeds (2 through 4) fare in the opening round. Now, we move to the more “upset-minded” matchups of 5 vs. 12 and 6 vs. 11

The 2007 Tournament saw all four five seeds advance to the second round, but that has been the exception to the rule as 20 of the previous 22 tournaments have seen at least one 12 seed upset a 5. Last year, it was Cornell over Temple, which we correctly predicted. The year before, there were three 12’s that pulled the upset and overall there have been 35 upsets since the field was expanded in 1985. It is interesting to note that two 5 seeds last year – Butler and Michigan State – made it all the way to the Final Four.

For years, it has been noted that six seeds actually outperformed their fifth seeded counterparts. However, here too, we are seeing a litany of upsets. Over the last five tournaments, eight 11’s have beaten a 6 (against 12 losses). Last year, a pair of 11’s – Washington and Old Dominion (we called the latter) – advanced, meaning there have been 33 upsets all-time, nearly matching what we have seen from the 5 vs. 12 matchup. Like the 5 seeds last year, it is interesting to note that both six seeds that made it out of the first round won at least two games.

So, it’s obvious that you have to pick some upsets here. What should you be looking for? Well for starters, there is something new this year that we discussed in Part 1. The addition of extra ‘play-in’ games means that two of the 12-seeds could be at a distinct disadvantage in this year’s tournament. We’ll probably be looking to take the 5 seeds that draw a team that has already played its way into the field of 64. Mid-majors as 12 seeds are usually popular picks. On the flip side, when you have a 12 seed from a ‘power six’ conference and they are matched up against a 5-seed from a mid-major, there tend to be “upsets” as well.

As for the 6-11 matchup, a lot of these picks are simply gut feelings. Typically, of the six seeds that do win a 1st round game, at least one is going to win twice. So, basically take a look at the four six seeds and go-against the ones that look weakest to you. It’s also in your best interest to do your homework on the individual teams and matchups!

NCAA Bracketology Preview (part 2)

2011-03-01T03:12:00.000-08:00

March Madness and the NCAA Tournament are unquestionably the peak time for college basketball betting. In our first NCAA Bracketology preview, we told you about our weekly free newsletter and annual Bracketology article, which will become available on March 15th. However, before we get to that, we will be going over the individual history of how certain seeds fare against one another in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

In Part 1, we told you that #1 seeds are 104-0 straight up all-time vs. #16 seeds and went 4-0 against the spread last year. We also talked about the expansion of the “opening round” or play-in games from one to four and how that will impact your office pool.

In this edition, we will discuss how teams seeded 2 through 4 fare in the first round against teams seeded 13 through 15. For winning college basketball picks throughout the NCAA Tournament, please visit our picks page.

2009 marked the first NCAA Tournament where every team seeded 1 through 3 made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, teams seeded 2 through 4 are a strong 169-43 SU. As you would expect 2 seeds have the highest success rate, losing only four times to a 15 seed and the last time this happened was 2001.

One 3 seed lost in the first round of the tournament last year and that was Georgetown, who bit the dust against Ohio U. That was the 16th all-time loss by a 3-seed in the first round.

It’s almost becoming automatic that you have to play against one 4 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament each year. That’s because 22 of the previous 26 tournaments have seen at least one four seed go down in the first two days of the Big Dance. We called last year’s upset with Murray State over Vanderbilt.

This year’s 4 seeds could be in for more trouble. That’s because some of the teams that could end up as 13 seeds in this year’s tournament look very dangerous. Keep an eye on the following schools and make a note of them when the brackets are officially released: Coastal Carolina, Belmont, Oakland and Cleveland State. You can bet that the higher seeded opponents that draw any of these teams will not be happy come Selection Sunday!

Up next we will take a look at the 5 vs. 12 and 6 vs. 11 matchups, which have an incredible history of upsets.

NCAA Tournament Bracketology Preview (part 1)

2011-03-01T03:09:00.000-08:00

March Madness and the NCAA Tournament are unquestionably the peak time for college basketball betting all year long. The Tourney is probably the most wagered on event of the year with the exception of the Super Bowl. Winning college basketball picks are always available at Vegas Experts where you can also download our free weekly handicapping newsletter, which contains free basketball picks from our expert sports handicappers.

The final issue of the My EDGE Newsletter will be published on March 15th, just in time for the 2011 NCAA Tournament. This is our most popular issue of the year as it contains our annual Bracketology article, where we assist you in filling out the brackets so that you can win your office pool. Note that these college basketball picks are straight up and not against the spread.

Last season, we had Duke making it to the National Title Game and also had West Virginia in the Final Four. In 2009, we correctly predicted that North Carolina would win it all, just like we did in 2005 when they beat Illinois (we predicted that exact Tournament Final). In 2007, we not only had the right Tournament Final and winner (Florida over Ohio State), but we correctly projected the entire Final Four field! In 2008, we correctly predicted seven of the Elite Eight teams (only missing on Cinderella Davidson).

In the upcoming weeks, we will be reviewing how certain seeds have fared against one another in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, we should not need to tell you that a #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed in 104 all-time matchups. Last year did see top seeds go a dominating 4-0 ATS, winning every game by more than 20 points.

New to this year’s tourney is the advent of multiple “play in” games or as College Basketball powers like to call them “opening round games.” Beginning in 2001, on the Tuesday following Selection Sunday in Dayton, OH, typically the two lowest seeded teams in the field have squared off for the right to play the highest seeded team in the field. It is important to note that since 2004, these “play-in games” have not been very competitive with every contest decided by eight points or more. Last season was the first time the underdog won or covered in four seasons.

For this season, the “opening round” has been expanded to four games. Two of them will feature teams seeded 16th in their region, thus making them obvious candidates for “one and done.” However, there will also be two “play in games” between teams seeded 12th in their region, which is certainly important to note because, as well all know, 12 seeds have a strong history of going on and upsetting 5 seeds. Because of this, you’ll probably be required to have your brackets filled out a few days earlier as previously the “play in game” had been largely disregarded by most office pools.
Up next we will be taking a look at how #2 through #4 seeds have historically fared in the first round.

Sports Betting Blog

2011-02-10T22:55:00.000-08:00

Here's what you need to know about the sports betting community and Vegas Experts.

John Ryan: NFL Betting Odds on Lockout

It certainly is looking more likely that there will be a NFL lockout by the owners. Another meeting has been cancelled and the sides are displaying a willingness to try to get something done. I personally can't imagine sports betting without the NFL, but there is an opportunity right now to hedge against any lost action. There is probably about a 70% probability that there will be a lockout and work stoppage for the first time in 24 years. Bodog has set 1-3 betting odds that the owners will lock out the players on March 4. That would pay back about 33 cents on each dollar bet along with the original wager. For those thinking there will not be a work stoppage you can get 2-1 odds. As much as I hate it, I'll lay the odds and expect a work stoppage by March 4.

Carlo Campanella: Finishes on 18-1 Run with NFL Picks

Congratulations are in order to the "Iron Horse" Carlo Campanella. This Vegas Expert finished the season on an 18-1 run with his NFL Picks and did not lose a single football pick in the NFL Playoffs. Carlo continued his winning ways on Tuesday in the NBA as the Orlando Magic (-10) blew out the Clippers 101-85! Don't miss any of his winning basketball picks at Vegas Experts.

NCAA Player of the Year Odds at Bodog

You can now bet on which player will win the 2010-11 Naismith Award in College Basketball betting. Betting odds have now been posted at Bodog.

Odds to win the 2011 Naismith Trophy for NCAA Player of the Year

Jimmer Fredette (BYU) 5/4

Jared Sullinger (Ohio State) 7/4

Nolan Smith (Duke) 3/1

Kemba Walker (Connecticut) 10/1

Field (Any Other Player) 5/1

Super Bowl Betting Blog (2.2) – Four Days Left, Tons of Sportsbook Specials

2011-02-03T19:32:00.001-08:00

Just four days remain until Super Bowl XLV and Vegas Experts is proud to announce that several of our recommended online sportsbooks have specials going for betting the big game!

BetUS Sportsbook is offering a 55% Signup Bonus to all Vegas Experts customers.

Bodog is offering you the chance to bet with a legend. They are also proud to announce that they are celebrating their billionth hand of blackjack, which gives you the opportunity to live like a billionaire!

There is also still a 100% Super Bowl Bonus available at Sports Interaction that gives you up to $200 Free to bet on Super Bowl XLV.

Sportsbook.com is giving you the opportunity to score a 50% win bonus up to $250.

Will Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey play or not? We originally tweeted that he was declared out of the game due to a high ankle sprain, but now reports are that he is 75% likely to play. At least that’s what he told Chris Berman.

Cross-sport props are some of our favorite wagers to make on Super Sunday and Bodog has some really interesting bets up on the board right now. One that caught our eye is which number will be higher: QB Aaron Rodgers TD passes or Washington Capitals superstar Alex Ovechkin’s total points against the Pittsburgh Penguins. You can currently get Ovechkin at +120 betting odds.

There are also historical props available. Do you think Aaron Rodgers will throw more touchdown passes than former “mentor” Brett Favre did in Super Bowl? Favre threw a pair of scoring strikes in Super Bowl XXXI against the New England Patriots and if you think Rodgers can do better, you can get +120 betting odds.
For all of the winning football picks on Super Bowl XLV, visit VegasExperts.com & pay only after you win!

Super Bowl Betting Blog (2.1) – Five Days Left, Experts Making Their Picks

2011-02-03T19:20:00.000-08:00

Our experts continue to check in with their Super Bowl XLV Picks as the game grows nearer and as a reminder, you can save 20% off every Super Bowl selection when you become a member. Purchase our two-month membership plan today and save 20% on every pick you buy at Vegas Experts from now all the way through March Madness. Not only that, but you will gain daily access to our members-only plays!

The “Iron Horse” Carlo Campanella is on a NFL run for the ages. He has NOT LOST a single NFL pick in the playoffs & is 17-1 run with his NFL Picks overall. Last year, he cashed with the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl. Who does he have this year? The answer is just a click away.

BetUS Sportsbook still has the betting line favoring the Packers by 2.5 points and the total is currently 44 points. Remember, if you signup at BetUS today, they’ll give all Vegas Experts customers a free 55% signup bonus.

Vegas Expert Big Al McMordie has written an excellent Super Bowl Preview for the site. You can read it here.

Which team does the rushing game favor? Matt Fargo explains why the Steelers are the answer.

We’ll be back tomorrow with more on Super Bowl XLV!

Super Bowl Betting Blog: Day 4 (1.28.11)

2011-01-30T20:12:00.000-08:00

Weekend Edition
In all due respect to the Pro Bowl (by the way the game is listed as a pick), it's going to be weird to have no football games this weekend. That doesn't mean you can't start betting on Super Bowl XLV though! Sports Interaction is offering all Vegas Experts customers a special 100% Super Bowl bonus. You can get up to $200 added to your account for free!

Depending on the sportsbook, Green Bay is still listed as either a 2.5 or 3-point favorite. Sports Interaction offers a free Super Bowl pick here.

This is a pretty tough game to handicap, so you'll need some help. Matt Fargo has written extensively on the issue of the rushing game, so be sure to read his latest article. You'll find that the rushing game greatly favors one side in Super Bowl XLV.

If you missed it yesterday, read about prop betting from former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio.

And of course, we have to remind you to purchase Carlo Campanella's Super Bowl winner. "The Iron Horse" is on a 17-1 NFL Run & has not lost a single game in the playoffs!

Super Bowl Betting Blog: Day 2 (1.25.11)

2011-01-26T23:50:00.001-08:00

Betting trends are now available for Super Bowl XLV and posted at Vegas Experts. We have found that the Steelers are 59-38 ATS in the underdog role, going 8-2 ATS the last three years when getting points, including 3-1 ATS this season.

Green Bay's trends strongly favor a play Under the total as we find the Packers have gone Under the total in 10 of 12 games this season when off a straight up win and 5-1 Under when coming off back to back ATS wins. Betting trends can be a useful tool when handicapping any sporting event and we provide winning betting trends in all daily sports, including NBA, College Basketball and the NHL.

Another useful tool is considering NFL playoff betting history. As we mentioned yesterday, underdogs have covered the last three Super Bowls and seven of the past nine. Some other history to consider is that the NFC has covered the last three Super Bowls, winning two of them outright. This is also the first time the NFC has been favored in the Super Bowl since 2001 when the Rams lost outright to New England, kicking off the Patriots dynasty. Once upon a time, the NFC won every Super Bowl from 1984-1997. Since that time, they've won just three (St. Louis - 1999, NY Giants - 2007, New Orleans - 2009).

Most online sportsbooks have moved the Packers to a three-point favorite. However, BetUS Sportsbook still has Green Bay at -2.5, so if you like the favorite, then you should bet them there! They'll give you a 55% bonus just for signing up!

Many of our expert handicappers have already posted their winning selections for Super Bowl XLV. One of them is Carlo Campanella, who is currently on an incredible 17-1 NFL Run and has not lost a single playoff game! Last year, he cashed with the Saints in the Super Bowl. Last Sunday - he had both the Packers & Steelers - and he knows which of these teams is ready to win Super Bowl XLV! You can save 20% off his selection when you become a member at Vegas Experts today.

Super Bowl Betting Blog: Day 1 (1.24.11)

2011-01-26T23:31:00.000-08:00

Betting the Super Bowl is unlike betting any other NFL game during the season. It is unquestionably the most heavily bet event of the calendar year. Another unique factor to consider is the two weeks off between the game and the conference championships.

Super Bowl 45 features a battle between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers. It is quite shocking that after hearing how much better the AFC is compared to the NFC all season long that the NFC's six seed has opened as a three-point favorite over the AFC's two seed at most of our recommended online sportsbooks.

Both teams have covered the spread in all of their playoff games thus far. In fact, the pointspread has yet to 'come into play' in any game this playoff season as every straight up winner has also covered the pointspread.

Historically speaking, these are two of the most successful franchises in NFL history. The Steelers will be making their record-tying eighth Super Bowl appearance (6-1 SU) while the Packers will be making their fifth (3-1 SU). Green Bay is widely considered to be the team of the 1960's, winning each of the first two Super Bowls. Pittsburgh was the team of the 1970's, winning four Super Bowls that decade, and has added to that total with two more Lombardi Trophies in the past five seasons.

Looking at more recent Super Bowl history, the underdog has covered the number three straight years with the Saints upsetting the Colts outright as six-point dogs last year. Two years ago, the Cardinals nearly pulled off an outright win over Pittsburgh (stayed within 6.5 point number) and the year before that saw the Giants pull off a historic upset as a double-digit dog over the unbeaten Patriots. Looking back a bit further, we find the underdogs are 7-2 ATS the last nine Super Bowls. Four of those seven times they have won the game straight up.

It's interesting that if you want to bet the Steelers at +3, you have to lay $130 to win $100. Clearly, the oddsmakers are expecting some Pittsburgh money.

We'll be back with more Super Bowl betting information tomorrow. The Vegas Experts already have their Super Bowl picks available for sale.

NFL Playoff Blog

2011-01-06T21:26:00.001-08:00

New Orleans (-10.5) at Seattle (45): The Seahawks are the largest home dog in NFL Playoff history and probably deservingly so as they were the first team to ever qualify for the postseason with a losing record. Furthermore, their nine losses came by an average of three touchdowns. One of those came to the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, 34-19, as 11-point road dogs on November 21st. Seattle is 0-10 ATS off a home win and went 11-4-1 Over this season.

NY Jets (44.5) at Indianapolis (-2.5): Rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game with the line five points lower and the total 4.5 points greater. The Jets were an interesting road team this year, 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. They also went Over in all eight road games and are 6-0 Over as an underdog this season. The Colts ended the regular season on a four-game winning streak. Get the winning NFL Pick on this game at Vegas Experts.

Baltimore (-3) at Kansas City (41): Ravens are the far more battle tested team when it comes to the NFL playoffs. This is their third straight year in the postseason under the Harbaugh/Flacco regime while Kansas City has not won a home playoff game since '93. They did go 7-1 SU at Arrowhead this season, but that loss came in the finale to Oakland. Get the winning NFL pick on this game at Vegas Experts.

Green Bay (46.5) at Philadelphia (-2.5): This game should be great. Packers qualified on the final day of the season by beating the Bears 10-3 at home in the season finale. The Eagles lost their final two regular season games after wrapping up the NFC East by stunning the Giants in perhaps the year's most memorable game. Green Bay won on this field in Week 1, but Kevin Kolb started at QB for Philadelphia in that game and prior to that the Packers had lost nine straight times in the City of Brotherly Love.

NFL Week 15 Report

2010-12-26T22:15:00.000-08:00

Here is the info you need to know for making NFL picks this week:

Kansas City (43.5) at St. Louis (pk): Battle of division leaders. Chiefs QB Cassel is listed as probable and the team desperately needs him considering backup Croyle's 0-10 SU career mark. Also, KC is 1-4 SU last five road games and the Rams are 4-1 SU/ATS L5 at home.

Jacksonville (48.5) at Indianapolis (-4.5): This is a huge game in the AFC South. If the Jags pull the upset, they will have swept the season series from the Colts and essentially wrap up the division. Each of the prior six meetings between these teams have been decided by a TD or less.

Philadelphia (46) at NY Giants (-3): These teams are tied for first place in the NFC East. The Eagles have beaten the Giants five straight times (5-0 vs. the betting line, including 27-17 last month on a Sunday Night. New York led that game in the fourth quarter, but turned it over for a fifth time.

New Orleans (43.5) at Baltimore (-1): The money has come in on the dog after the public watched the Ravens allow the Texans two 90+ yd drives in the fourth quarter Monday night. Saints have won six straight overall and are 10-2 ATS L12 vs. the AFC.

Atlanta (-6) at Seattle: The Falcons are one of three teams this week to be playing the third of three consecutive road games. Potential lookahead with division rival New Orleans on deck, but Seattle has looked very bad of late and is just 5-14 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons.

NY Jets (35.5) at Pittsburgh (-6): Has there ever been a 9-4 team viewed as poorly as these Jets are? They have scored just nine points the last two weeks and now face a Steelers D that is allowing 9 PPG its last four games. Pittsburgh has gone 0-3 vs. the betting line vs. the AFC East thus far.

Get all of Lenny Del Genio's NFL Picks, including his 20* Game of the Month, this Sunday at Vegas Experts.

NFL Week 11 Blog

2010-11-19T03:07:00.000-08:00

Another week of NFL football picks is upon us and for the oddsmakers edge each week on NFL betting, you can turn to former oddsmaker and sports handicapper Lenny Del Genio, who helps you beat the sports betting line at Vegas Experts. Here are some key betting angles for some of Sunday’s games.

Oakland (41.5) at Pittsburgh (-7): Raiders are off their bye week and have won three straight games for the first time since 2002. They have upset Pittsburgh the last two meetings, including 27-24 as 15-point dogs last year. However, early start times are usually bad for the Raiders and the Steelers will be angry after getting beaten soundly by New England last week.

Houston (45.5) at NY Jets (-7): The Texans have failed to cover in any of their last five games and are 0-4 SU/ATS all-time vs. the Jets. New York is the first team in NFL history to have won consecutive road games both in OT, but those wins were against Detroit and Cleveland.

Baltimore (-10) at Carolina (37.5): Jimmy Clausen gets the start at QB for Carolina. The Panthers offense has scored just 46 points in five home games. Good luck against Ray Lewis and company. Baltimore has had 10 days to prepare.

Washington (44) at Tennessee (-7): The Redskins have been outgained in all nine games this season. The Titans have been dominant against the NFC, going 36-15 ATS, including 8-1 ATS last nine and 3-0 ATS this season.

Detroit (46) at Dallas (-6.5): The Lions have the best pointspread record in the league at 7-1-1 ATS. Dallas has the worst at 2-7 ATS. Yet the Cowboys will be favored and will be most people's pick in this game.

Arizona (44) at Kansas City (-8): Tough to back either team here, although the Chiefs are 4-0 at home averaging 213 yards rushing. Arizona has gone Over in all but two games this season, one being in Week One the other when they were coming off the bye.

Seattle at New Orleans (-12.5): Saints are off a bye and getting RB Reggie Bush back as the former Heisman Winner faces his former coach at USC Pete Carroll. They are just 1-10 ATS as double-digit chalk, but Seattle is 3-10 SU/ATS in road games.

Atlanta (-3) at St. Louis (43): Trap spot for the Falcons? St. Louis is 4-0 SU/ATS at home after losing its opener.

Indianapolis (50.5) at New England (-4): This is the 12th all-time meeting between Brady and Manning. Manning's Colts are 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS last six meetings after losing the previous four. Tom Brady has not lost a regular season home game since 2006.

Get winning NFL football picks from Lenny Del Genio at Vegas Experts.

NFL Week 10 Blog

2010-11-16T20:15:00.000-08:00

Another week of football picks is upon us and for the oddsmakers edge each week on NFL betting, you can turn to former oddsmaker Lenny Del Genio, who helps you beat the sports betting line at Vegas Experts.

Here is some key NFL betting angles for some of Sunday’s games.

Cincinnati (47) at Indianapolis (-7): The Bengals are on a 0-5 SU/ATS run, allowing opponents to score an average of 27 PPG. They are on a 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS last eight road games overall, so this probably is not a good spot against a Colts team that has won 18 of 19 at home (3-0 SU/ATS TY w/ avg MOV of 15.7 PPG).

Tennessee (-2) at Miami (43): Dolphins are 0-3 SU/ATS at home this year and have made a switch at QB from Chad Henne to Chad Pennington. This is the debut of WR Randy Moss with the Titans. Road teams are 7-1 SU/ATS in Miami games this year & the Fish are 6-20 ATS L26 home games.

Detroit (44) at Buffalo (-3): For the winless Bills, this looks like the best shot for a SU win as they are favored for the second time all season. They have now lost three straight games by a field goal. Detroit does not have QB Stafford, but is a league best 7-1 ATS this year, beating the spread by 60 pts in the L5 games.

Carolina (37) at Tampa Bay (-7): The Panthers are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven visits to Raymond James Stadium, and the Bucs have been outscored 100-54 in four home games thus far. However, Carolina is on pace to be one of the lowest scoring teams in NFL single season history.

Kansas City (-1) at Denver (43): The Broncos are just 2-13 ATS at home vs. AFC teams, including 0-7 ATS vs. division opponents. However, they are also 12-1 ATS when playing with rest. The Chiefs are off a tough loss to the Raiders.

St. Louis (38) at San Francisco (-6): The Rams have lost 15 of 16 road games. San Francisco has gone Under six straight times vs. division opponents.

Seattle (41.5) at Arizona (-3): The Cardinals are -7 in turnovers, the Seahawks are -1000 in total yardage compared to their opponents. Arizona is 4-0 SU/ATS last four times hosting Seattle.

NFL Week 9 Blog

2010-11-03T21:52:00.000-07:00

Another week of football picks is upon us and for the oddsmakers edge each week on NFL betting, you can turn to former oddsmaker Lenny Del Genio, who helps you beat the sports betting line at Vegas Experts.

Chicago (-3) at Buffalo (40): This game will be held in Toronto, an annual excursion by the Bills, who are 0-3 ATS in true home games this season + off back to back OT losses on the road. Chicago has lost two straight games at home and is off its bye week. Bears won the previous meeting 40-7, in 2006.

San Diego (-3) at Houston (51): Two of the NFL's biggest underachievers meet in Houston this week with the 4-3 Texans off a Monday Night loss to Indianapolis and 3-5 San Diego still looking for its first road win. The Chargers are 0-4 SU/ATS away from home this year despite a +195 edge in total yards in those games. Texans are 0-3 SU/ATS all-time vs. the Lightning Bolts.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Carolina (41): The oddsmakers were a bit slow in posting a number on this NFC matchup due to the questionable status of various running backs on both sides. These are two of the worst pointspread teams in the league withthe Saints 2-5-1 ATS and the Panthers 2-5 ATS. Carolina did cover as 12.5-pt dogs in New Orleans five weeks ago in a 16-14 defeat.

Arizona (41) at Minnesota (-9): The Vikings are a mess with QB Favre hobbled, WR Moss cut and HC Childress incompetent. Sadly, the Cardinals may be in worse shape as they are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road this year, getting outscored 104-27. They have no QB with both Derek Anderson and Max Hall completely ineffective. Minnesota is 11-1 SU L12 home games, including 7-1 ATS run.

Tampa Bay (44.5) at Atlanta (-8): This game will decide first place in the NFC South as both come in at 5-2 SU. The Bucs five wins have come against Cleveland, Carolina, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Arizona. They have proven to be road warriors, however, as they are 6-1 L7 ATS on the road, including four straight outright wins. Last four meetings have all gone Under the total.

NY Jets (-4) at Detroit (41.5): The Jets were the first team to be shutout in a game this season as they came out flat off the bye week and lost 9-0 to the Packers last week. Detroit has been a huge money maker this season, going 6-1 ATS with the lone non-cover coming by a single point.

Miami (40) at Baltimore (-5): The Dolphins have an incredible road/home dichotomy going this year, but not what you'd expect. Through seven games, they are 4-0 SU/ATS on the road and 0-3 SU/ATS at home. Long-term, they are on an 11-3 ATS run as a road dog. The Ravens are off a bye week and have crushed Miami each of the prior two meetings.

New England (-4.5) at Cleveland (43.5): Don't look now, but the Pats are the only one-loss team remaining in the league. Browns HC Mangini was 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS vs. former teacher Belichick and New England during his Jets tenure. Browns are off a bye and on a 10-4 ATS run dating back to last season following a stunning upset (+13) of New Orleans two weeks ago.

NY Giants (-6.5) at Seattle (41): This smells like a trap game for the Giants. The Seahawks are 3-0 SU/ATS at home (10-3 ATS L13), but off a terrible 33-3 loss to the Raiders. New York is off a bye and has won its last four games despite 11 turnovers over that span. The Giants D has knocked five different quarterbacks out of the game this year.

Kansas City (40.5) at Oakland (-2.5): Who had this game as the battle of the top two AFC West teams come Week 10. The Raiders are at .500 in November for the first time since 2002, when they went to the Super Bowl. They have outscored their last two opponents by a stunning 92-17 margin. The Chiefs are on a 7-2 ATS run in road games. Last four meetings have gone Under with an average total points of just 28.8.

Indianapolis (46.5) at Philadelphia (-3): Mike Vick is back at QB for the Eagles against a Colts team working on a short week. Philly is off the bye week and 17-5 ATS when playing with rest, which predates the HC Reid era. Something has to give here as the Eagles are 2-5 ATS L7 home games, but Indy is 1-3 ATS on the road this year.

Dallas (45.5) at Green Bay (-8): The Cowboys could be the worst team in football and are definitely its least profitable (1-6 ATS). Ten of the previous 13 meetings between the teams have gone Over and Dallas has gone Over in its last four games overall. The Packers have seemingly righted the ship with wins over the Vikings and Jets the last two weeks.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cincinnati (41.5): The Bengals are in free fall with an 0-4 SU/ATS mark last four games, so if a Monday Night home game against the divsion rival Steelers can't inspire them, then nothing will. Pittsburgh is on a 14-5 ATS run in Cincinnati, but lost both games to the Bengals last year.

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NFL Week 7 Blog

2010-10-26T03:10:00.000-07:00

Another week of football picks is upon us and for the oddsmakers edge each week on NFL betting, you can turn to former oddsmaker Lenny Del Genio, who helps you beat the sports betting line at Vegas Experts.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami (40.5): The Dolphins are an unusual 3-0 SU/ATS on the road, but 0-2 SU/ATS at home this season. Going back to last year, they have lost four in a row SU and ATS at home. The Steelers are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS the last four meetings with Miami, including a 30-24 win last year that featured three interceptions. Pittsburgh has won and covered both road games thus far.

Cincinnati (42.5) at Atlanta (-3.5): The Bengals are much more comfortable in the role of underdog, posting a 10-3 ATS record while winning nine of those games outright. However, the Falcons are a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss.

Philadelphia (42.5) at Tennessee (-3): The Titans have absolutely dominated the NFC foes, covering 35 of 50 games and winning 11 in a row SU. They are also on a 17-5 ATS run when laying three or less at home.

Cleveland (43.5) at New Orleans (-13): Something has to give here as the Saints are just 1-9 ATS when laying double digits, but 9-0 ATS vs. AFC teams. Cleveland has gone Under 10 straight times vs. NFC South foes.

Buffalo (40) at Baltimore (-13): The underdog is on a 5-0 ATS run in Ravens pre-bye week games. However, Baltimore typically cleans up against teams with a losing record, going 9-1 ATS the last two seasons.

St. Louis (38) at Tampa Bay (-3): Rams have been outscored 128-37 in their last four road games while the Bucs are 2-9 SU/ATS their last 11 home games.

Oakland (41) at Denver (-8.5): The Raiders have covered four straight times in Denver, including pulling off the upset win each of the last two years.

Minnesota (44.5) at Green Bay (-3): Packers have lost four in a row ATS.They are also 5-1 Under this season. Minnesota swept last year and each of the last four meetings have gone Over.

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NFL Week 4 Blog

2010-10-01T04:00:00.000-07:00

Former linesmaker Lenny del Genio gives sports betting tips at sports handicapping site Vegas Experts.

Denver (42.5) at Tennessee (-6.5): The Titans surrendered 471 total yards of offense in a 29-10 win over the Giants last week. Denver, meanwhile, gained 519 yards total offense in a 27-13 loss to the Colts. Note that the Broncos are 12-2 ATS the week after gaining 500+ total yards.

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland (37): Are the Browns due for a win or just due to get blown out? Cleveland’s three losses this season have come by a combined 12 points. Cincinnati was 0-8 ATS when favored last season, but did cover in that role last week.

Detroit (46) at Green Bay (-14): Lions have lost 19 straight times at Lambeau Field (4-13-2 ATS). Packers are off a MNF road loss to the Bears where they outgained the Bears 379-276.

Carolina (44) at New Orleans (-13.5): The Panthers look like the worst team in the NFL right now. They are on a 4-0 ATS run vs. the Saints. Nine of the last eleven meetings have gone Under the total.

Seattle (-1.5) at St. Louis (40): Seattle is on a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS run at St. Louis. Both teams won last week. Something has to give as the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS off a home win and the Rams are 2-11 ATS in division games.

Indianapolis (-7.5) at Jacksonville (46): Colts are 8-2 SU, but just 4-5-1 ATS last ten meetings with the Jags. Jacksonville is just 4-14 ATS in home games.

Houston (-3) at Oakland (43): The Raiders should probably be 2-1, but are 4-14 ATS as home dogs of three points or less on the betting line.

Arizona (46) at San Diego (-9): Chargers outgained Seattle +247 LW and still lost. Take out last week’s special teams TD and the Cards are averaging less than 14 PPG.

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NFL Week 3 Blog

2010-09-26T21:56:00.000-07:00

Former linesmaker Lenny del Genio gives sports betting tips at sports handicapping site Vegas Experts.

Tennessee (42.5) at NY Giants (-3): Titans are 4-0 SU all-time vs. the Giants since moving to Tennessee. In fact, the franchise is 33-15 ATS its last 48 non-conference games. Both teams won and covered in Week 1 only to suffer bad losses in Week 2.

Cleveland (37) at Baltimore (-10.5): Ravens have won and covered four straight in this AFC North rivalry. They have also covered six straight as double-digit chalk on the betting line. However, there is a great system on the Browns here that says to play against DD home favorites, off a SU loss as chalk. The system is 42-14 ATS since 1983.

Detroit (42.5) at Minnesota (-12): The NFL is guaranteed at least one 0-3 team as this is the only battle of winless teams on the Week 3 slate. The Vikings are on 9-1 SU, 6-2-2 ATS run in this NFC North rivalry. The same system from the Browns game is active on the Lions here.

Dallas (47) at Houston (-3): Can the Cowboys really fall to 0-3? This, to us, is the most intriguing game on the card. Dallas is just 4-8 ATS L12 vs. AFC teams. LW Houston beat a Redskins team that beat the Cowboys. The Texans have never started a season 3-0.

Washington (-3.5) at St. Louis (39): Rams have covered three straight vs. the Redskins, including covers as DD dogs each of the last two seasons. They have also lost 14 straight home games! Washington has only 106 yards rushing in two games and this is their first road game.

Philadelphia (-3) at Jacksonville (44.5): Vick gets the start over Kolb for Philly. Jags have covered just four of their last 17 home games.

Indianapolis (-5.5) at Denver (48): Tough spot for a Broncos team still dealing with the apparent suicide of teammate Kenny McKinley. Colts are 7-2 SU/ATS last nine meetings. Both teams lost in Week 1, but rebounded with wins and covers last week.

San Diego (-5.5) at Seattle (44): Seahawks are 6-5 SU and 8-3 ATS L11 home games. Chargers QB Rivers is 11-5 SU vs. the NFC, winning five straight, three of them coming on the road.

For more winning NFL Football picks, please visit Vegas Experts.

NFL Week 2 Blog

2010-09-17T04:52:00.001-07:00

Another week of football picks is upon us and for the oddsmakers edge each week on NFL betting, you can turn to former oddsmaker Lenny Del Genio, who helps you beat the sports betting line at Vegas Experts.

Kansas City at Cleveland - This is a rematch from last year's exciting 41-37 win by the Browns in Arrowhead Stadium. There is a great system that says to play against home teams favored by, or getting less than, three points, off a road loss, if they had a losing record last season. The system's 25-year record is 44-16 ATS!

Buffalo at Green Bay - You know the Bills are going to be bad when they are already a double digit dog this early into the season. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS after a loss by six points or less.

Philadelphia at Detroit - This line has jumped significantly during the week from Eagles -3 to Eagles -6. The QB situation is the biggest storyline with Vick starting for Philly and Stafford out 3-4 weeks for the Lions.

Chicago at Dallas - Clearly, the oddsmakers are expecting a bounce back effort from the Cowboys. The Bears have covered just one of their last nine in the road underdog role.

Arizona at Atlanta - Falcons went 6-2 SU/ATS at home last year. The Cardinals historically never perform well East of the Mississippi. Atlanta has revenge from a playoff loss two years ago.

Miami at Minnesota - The Vikings were 9-0 SU at home last year and get three extra days to prepare.

St. Louis at Oakland - This is one of several battles between bad teams on the NFL Week 2 card. Last two meetings were both won by the Rams - by a combined score of 48-13.

Houston at Washington - Will there be a letdown for the Texans after the big win over Indianapolis? Houston is 2-10 ATS off SU dog win in franchise history.

Jacksonville at San Diego - Expect a big bouceback effort from the Lightning Bolts following the Monday night loss. They are just 5-5 SU/ATS in September home games, however.

New England at NY Jets - This could be the marquee game on the Week 2 card. No one is going to want to bet the Jets after the Week 1 dud vs. Baltimore and they are three-point home dogs. However, road favorites that scored 24 or more points in the first half of their last game are just 9-30 ATS last five seasons.

St. Mary’s at Gonzaga Game Preview

2010-02-15T00:27:00.000-08:00

You'll have to stay up late to watch Thursday’s best College Basketball game, a West Coast Conference matchup pitting first place St. Mary’s against second place Gonzaga. Although the Gaels hold a lead in the conference standings, they did lose to the ‘Zags at home, 89-82 as 4.5 point favorites, back on January 14th. This time, they’ll be 5.5-point underdogs as the scene shifts to Spokane.

Although these two schools stand out as the two preeminent powers in the WCC, the head-to-head series has been very one-sided. Gonzaga has beaten its main rival 28 of 32 times, including all 13 at home. In addition to winning the earlier meeting this season, the Bulldogs swept last year’s season series, including an 83-52 win in the finals of the Conference Tournament. That was just the fourth time since 2005 where a meeting between the teams has been decided by double-digits.

This season, St. Mary’s has been very profitable out on the road, however, going 7-1 against the spread. Despite being favored by double digits in each of the last five games, the Gaels have been able to maintain a 16-6 overall spread record. They come off back to back blowout wins at home against Santa Clara and San Fracisco, although they did go just 0-1-1 ATS in those games.

The Gaels come in with the better record at 21-3 straight up and have won 20 or more games now in three consecutive seasons. They’ve won six in a row overall and are led by Omar Samhan (21 PPG and 11 RPG). Mickey McConnell (14 PPG) and Matthew Dellavedova (12 PPG).

A win here would give Gonzaga 20 wins for the 13th consecutive season. Head Coach Mark Few, who has never won fewer than 23 games any season during his tenure, joins Roy Williams of UNC as the only two active head coaches with career win percentages above .800.

The Bulldogs are a lock for next month’s NCAA Tournament and already have non-conference wins over the likes of Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Washington State, Oklahoma, Illinois and most recently Memphis last Saturday, a 66-58 win as 5.5-point road underdogs.

The only team to defeat the ‘Zags at home this season was Wake Forest, a 77-75 winner all the way back on December 5th. This was considered to be a rebuilding year in Spokane, but instead it has been business as usual. Five of their remaining seven regular seasons games will be played at home.

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Boston Celtics at New Orleans Hornets NBA Game Preview

2010-02-15T00:14:00.000-08:00

The last two teams to lose to the Orlando Magic square off Wednesday night in the home of the Super Bowl Champs as the Hornets host the still sinking Boston Celtics.

The visitors have been off ever since their Super Sunday loss to the Magic, but they've hardly enjoyed the vacation considering the team is just 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 contests. New Orleans will have to shake off its own tough defeat as they led Orlando for much of the game Monday night before giving way in a 123-117 loss.

As if Boston's recent woes weren't enough to contend with, now they must deal with reports that they are looking to shop Glen "Big Baby" Davis to the Charlotte Bobcats. According to published reports, nothing is imminent, although Bobcats guard D.J. Augustin's name has mentioned as they key cog in a potential trade.

It would be one thing if covering the spread was the only problem facing the Celtics, but the team is not winning on the court either. Sunday's setback to the Magic was their fourth straight loss to a team with a winning record as caused HC Doc Rivers to remark that his team simply is not as good as Orlando as well as some of the league's other better teams. All told, they are just 5-7 SU their last 12 games.

At 27-25, New Orleans would be a playoff team in the much more depth shy Eastern Conference, but out West they are currently in last place in their division and several games off the postseason pace. Since losing All Star PG Chris Paul, the team has lost four of six games, although they have managed to cover the spread in their last two games.

Both teams have major issues to address heading into the break. Boston has had problems holding onto leads down the stretch in recent weeks and Sunday was no different as they blew an 11-point halftime lead to the Magic and were outscored 36-11 in the third quarter.

For New Orleans, the issue has been defense. This team ranks near the bottom of the league on that end of the floor, allowing 106.4 PPG over its last five contests as opponents are shooting right around 50%. For the year, those numbers are 101.5 PPG and 47.3% shooting. The 123 points surrendered to the Magic was one shy of matching a season worst effort.

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Purdue at Michigan State Game Preview

2010-02-14T23:55:00.000-08:00

You could say that 10th ranked Michigan State had a bad week. The Spartans lost road games to both Wisconsin and Illinois and now not only have failed to cover four straight games. They must now put that behind them as they host the only Big Ten team ranked higher than they are, that being 6th ranked Purdue, on Tuesday night. As a result of the losing streak, MSU finds itself favored by just three points at most offshore sportsbooks.

The Boilermakers, meanwhile, have won five straight games following their own three-game losing streak, which occured early in the calendar year. Favored in all five wins, Purdue has not been particularly profitable for its backers going just 2-3 ATS in those games and has failed to cover six of its last eight games overall. Still, a win here and they would pull within one-half game of Michigan State for first place in the conference standings.

The Big Ten race wasn't always this close. The Spartans won their first nine Big Ten games to take a commanding three-game lead over everyone else in the league, but the two-game losing skid has resulted in three teams, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois, pulling within one game of them. The big story in East Lansing has been the absence of not only the team's leading scorer, but the entire conference's in Kalin Lucas (17.1 PPG). Lucas sprained his ankle in the Wisconsin game, a 67-49 road loss as two-point underdogs. His status is currently listed as questionable for tonight's game. In four career game vs. Purdue, Lucas was averaging a solid 17.8 PPG.

Playing without Lucas on Saturday, the Spartans turned the ball over 18 times and allowed Illinois to shoot better than 57% in a 78-73 loss. Note that Michigan State is 14-1 Under when coming off a SU loss as a road favorite, a fact that totals players will no doubt be interested in.

The player to keep an eye on for Purdue is JaJuan Johnson. The team is 18-0 SU when he scores eight points or more this season. He has averaged 18.6 PPG during the team's five-game win streak.

History has not been kind to the Boilermakers in East Lansing. They've lost nine straight times at the Breslin Center by an average of 11.1 points per game. Also note that Matt Painter's team is a hideous 9-27 against the spread as a road underdog of six points or less.

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Countdown to Super Bowl XLIV: Tuesday, February 2nd

2010-02-05T01:48:00.000-08:00

We're only five days away from Super Bowl XLIV with the Indianapolis Colts currently favored by five points over the New Orleans Saints.

That number has remained fairly unchanged following a huge line move in favor of the Colts early last week. Remember that it's always best to have multiple sportsbook accounts. Click here for a complete listing of our recommended sportsbooks.

The big news as we start the week is the report that Colts Pro Bowl defensive end Dwight Freeney has a torn ligament in his right ankle. He is currently listed as questionable. This news has yet to affect the betting line, but we wouldn't be surprised to see some Saints money to start rolling in!

Of course, we would like to take this opportunity to extend you the invitation of sampling our guaranteed NFL picks from our expert handicappers. Former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio is on a 9-1-2 NFL Totals Run entering Super Bowl 44, including a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs! His Over play on Arizona/Green Bay resulted in the highest scoring game in NFL Playoff history. The following week his Under play on Ravens/Colts cashed by three touchdowns. Then he cashed his top-rated play of the playoffs (the “VEGAS ICON”) on Over Vikings/Saints. Looking to bet the Over/Under on Super Bowl XLIV?

Check out all of our NFL Picks right now.

Super Bowl props are always a fun way to make betting on the game even more interesting. Click here for a complete listing of Super Bowl Betting Props at Bodog.

Which team has covered seven straight non-conference games? Be sure to check out our winning Super Bowl trends.

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Super Bowl XLIV Countdown: Only Three Days Remaining

2010-02-05T01:20:00.000-08:00

Super Bowl XLIV is less than 72 hours away and if you haven’t made your pick yet, what are you waiting for? Vegas Experts has you covered with winning NFL Picks on both the side and total for the game. Save 20% when you become a member!

Winning NFL Picks: Larry Ness’ Legend Play

6-year handicapping veteran Larry Ness has released a Legend Play on the big game! Larry has been in a MAJOR ZONE in the NFL playoffs. Including his "Playoff Game of the Year" winner, he's 8-4 his last 12 NFL Picks. His most recent LEGEND covered by 19 points. Find out his winning take at Vegas Experts!

Winning NFL Football Trends

Do you know which team, Indianapolis or New Orleans, is a perfect 8-0 ATS in non-conference games the last two years? How about which team is a perfect 5-0 ATS playing on grass? Don’t make a move on Super Bowl XLIV without first checking out our NFL Football Trends.

Super Bowl Prop Bets

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NFL Conference Championships

2010-01-28T03:49:00.000-08:00

Well, the NFL Conference Championships are just days away and Vegas Experts is ready with the winning and side and total selections for both Jets at Colts and Vikings at Saints. For the winning pick on both games, click here.

The Lakers meet the Cavs tonight on TNT in a battle of the NBA’s two best teams. Cleveland has opened as a 3.5-point home favorite at recommended sportsbook BetUS, but Mo Williams will be out with an injury.The Cavaliers won the first meeting between the teams on Christmas Day, winning 102-87 as six-point underdogs. Who will in the rematch? Larry Ness gave you a Christmas present on the Cavs in the first meeting and has the winner of tonight’s matchup here!

Congratulations if you have been following former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio’s College Basketball picks this season. He is 20 games over .500 for the year and a perfect 5-0 the last two days! Why not purchase a subscription package and get ALL of Lenny’s College Basketball Picks for an entire week? The cost of the package is just $99. That’s a savings of more than $250 if you bought each pick separately!

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Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies

2010-01-28T03:19:00.000-08:00

Two of our favorite and most improved teams in the NBA square off tonight in Memphis as the Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder. While home court advantage has proven vital in the
Western Conference so far this year, the Grizz best not be overconfident in this spot as the Thunder are one of just three teams in the Conference with a winning road record. Memphis is
favored by 3.5 points at BetUS Sportsbook.

Believe it or not, but these two teams own the best two records in the Western Conference since December 22nd. Oklahoma City is a West best 11-4 while Memphis is right behind them at 10-4 over that same span. The Thunder currently occupies the seventh spot in the conference standings, while the Grizzlies, despite a 22-19 mark, are actually on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture and in last place of the very tough Southwest Division.
Oklahoma City comes in riding a three-game win streak, but did not cover last time out, winning by just a two-point margin at Minnesota as seven-point chalk. The Thunder have been excellent this season when coming off an ATS loss, going 14-2 against the number. As mentioned earlier, they are one of just three teams (Dallas, Lakers) in the West with a winning road record (12-9), but do have a losing record vs. conference foes of 9-14. That being said, they have already surpassed last season's win total by virtue of beating the T'wolves Wednesday night.

Memphis is a very good home team, having won a franchise record nine straight at the FedEx Forum while going a very profitable 18-6-1 ATS for the year. Since beginning the year 1-8, they have won 21 of 32 games overall, leaving the sour taste of the Allen Iverson experiment as a distant memory.

Kevin Durant leads a young nucleus for the Thunder. The soon-to-be All-Star has averaged 33 PPG over his last seven contests (five wins), but it has been his team's defense that has led the way, allowing just 93.6 points per game since Christmas, ranking them near the top of the league. In fact, opponents field goal percentage of 41.9% is #1 over that time frame.

Meanwhile, offense has been the calling card for the Grizzlies, who are averaging better than 108 points per game since before Christmas time. They too are off a loss, however, falling at New Orleans Wednesday night, 113-111, a game they were leading by as many as nine in the third quarter.

Oklahoma City did win the previous meeting between these teams, 102-94 as two-point dogs, here in Memphis. The Grizzlies made just 58% of their free throw attempts in the loss and were 4 of 18 from three-point land. Memphis is 16-9 ATS in its last 25 revenge situations, including 11-4 ATS if the opponent scored 100 or more in the previous meeting.

Is there a possible lookahead for the Thunder? They will be in Cleveland to play the Cavs on
Saturday night.

Totals bettors should note that the Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 Over this season after covering four of their previous games.

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Atlanta Hawks at Houston Rockets

2010-01-28T02:55:00.000-08:00

Just when you thought the Houston Rockets were set to go on a little mini-run, they go out and lose at home to the road-weary Chicago Bulls. And just when you thought the Atlanta Hawks might be prone to the pointspread catching up with them, they go out and deliver back to back wins and covers last week. These two teams meet at the Toyota Center in Houston Monday night. BetUS Sportsbook has the Rockets favored by a single point.

Houston's 24-19 record is only good enough for eighth place in the highly competitive Western Conference and with the likes of Memphis, Oklahoma City and New Orleans all hot on their heels, the Rockets must keep winning to preserve their current position. All three of those teams are within one game of Houston, who has now failed to cover eight of their last 10 games at the betting window.

The loss to Chicago was not the way they had hoped to kick off a current six-game home stand, particularly considering they were off an outright win in San Antonio the night previous, 116-109 as six-point underdogs. They came out flat vs. the Bulls, trailing by 11 after just one quarter. The Rockets had won eight straight home games before dropping two of their last three, also losing to Miami back on the 15th. They have now failed to cover the number in each of their four previous home games.

Atlanta, meanwhile, currently tied with Orlando for first place in the Southeast Division and third overall in the Eastern Conference, owns the league's best overall pointspread record at 28-14 ATS. They are off a 4-1 home stand that culminated with a 103-89 win over what was a red hot Charlotte Bobcats team, then had the weekend off.

In the past, the Hawks have not fared well in Houston. They have lost 10 straight visits and 16 of 17 overall. Since 1996, they are 2-11 ATS when visiting the Rockets.

However, they did win at home in the season's first meeting, 105-103, back in November.Marvin Williams scored a career-high 29 points in that matchup and Jamal Crawford, the team's leading scorer despite coming off the bench, added 21.

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Notre Dame vs. Villanova Game Preview

2010-01-28T02:11:00.000-08:00

With top-ranked Kentucky losing on Tuesday, the door is now wide open for several college
basketball teams to claim to "we're #1." One of those teams is the Villanova Wildcats,
currently ranked third in the country. They will host Big East rival Notre Dame on Wednesday
at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia. BetUS Sportsbook has opened the line at -11 and the
total at 165.

'Nova has done quite well for its backers this season, going 12-4 ATS as a favorite and 2-0
ATS as an underdog or pick. When laying double digits, they've covered four straight,
including lines of -28 vs. Fordham and -28.5 vs. Delaware. In Big East play, they downed
DePaul 99-72 as 18.5-point chalk and just last week waxed Rutgers 94-68 as 13.5-point road
favorties. Overall, the Wildcats have a point differential of 14.5 points per game this
season and a record of 18-1. Their only loss came at Temple on December 13th.

An 11th straight victory would give the program its best start ever. No Villanova team has
won 11 straight games in nearly four years. G Scottie Reynolds leads a three-guard lineup
and is leading the team in scoring at 18.7 PPG. In Big East play, that average jumps to 21.4
PPG on 58.7% shooting. Twenty-four more points and he'll have 2,000 for his career. Reynolds
had 19 points in the team's 81-71 win over St. John's on Saturday, a game the Wildcats
covered as seven-point favorites. It was their fourth consecutive ATS win.

This is the second time this season Villanova will be playing at the Wachovia Center. On
January 17th, they beat Georgetown 82-77 to start the four game stretch of ATS victories and
improve their mark to 16-8 straight up their last 24 games played at the Wachovia
Center.

Another contributing factor to the high line is how bad Notre Dame has been on the road the
past couple seasons. This year, the Irish are just 2-3 SU away from South Bend, including
conference losses to UConn and Cincinnati. They are also 1-2 vs. Top 10 teams this season
after losing at home to Syracuse last Monday as 2.5-point underdogs.

Villanova won the only meeting between the schools last season, 77-60, in South Bend.

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Monitor Quarterback Play When Making Your NFL Playoff Picks

2009-12-21T19:59:00.000-08:00

A recent comment from ESPN’s Trent Dilfer got me thinking: “NFL Quarterback Play is better NOW then it’s ever been.”

At first, the comment seemed like hyperbole. After all, such luminaries as JaMarcus Russell and Trent Edwards and Keith Null are all still drawing paychecks and all three made starts this year. But, after close consideration, Dilfer may be onto something

Here are the starting quarterbacks of all the NFL teams with a winning record:

Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Kyle Orton.

Five of those players (Favre, Rodgers, Brees, P. Manning, Rivers) are all having MVP caliber seasons. Two others (Brady, Warner) are former league MVP’s. Of the names that stick out like a sore thumb (Henne, Sanchez, Flacco, Orton), only two at most will make the playoffs.

Here is a list now of all the starting QB’s on teams at 5-8 or worse:

Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Matt Moore, Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck, Keith Null, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brady Quinn, Bruce Gradkowski and Matt Cassel.

All but two of those signal callers are first or second-year starters. Campbell has had a different offensive coordinator almost every year in Washington. Hasselback is on a team dealing with multiple injuries.

So while Dilfer’s comments may have been a bit premature, it certainly did illustrate help to illustrate which teams are winning in the NFL right now and why. Do not be surprised to see the two Wild Card teams in the AFC get destroyed in their first game due to the inferior play at the quarterback position. It is very clear at this juncture that the teams that are winning are doing so because of stability and superior play at the quarterback position. It’s that simple!

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NFL Week 8 Preview (Part 2)

2009-10-29T23:44:00.000-07:00

Minnesota at Green Bay – The most anticipated rematch in NFL history as the first meeting, won by Favre and the Vikings, was the most watched sporting event in Cable TV history. The Vikings are off their first loss of the season and just 1-5 ATS L6 pre-bye week games. The home team has won four straight in this rivalry and Green Bay is on a 7-1 SU/ATS run as divisional hosts. Apparently, playing the Steelers takes something out of you as teams are 1-5 ATS this season the week after playing Pittsburgh. There will be an incredible amount of pressure on QB Rodgers here.

San Francisco at Indianapolis – Another double-digit spread. The Colts have won 15 straight regular season games, but the Niners have covered six straight when getting points. For Indy, this is the first of three straight games at home, where they are just 4-8 ATS L12. San Francisco has lost BB games for the 1st time in the Mike Singletary era. Former #1 Overall DC Alex Smith takes over at QB for the 49ers. The Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS coming off consecutive double-digit wins.

Miami at NY Jets – If not for the Packers/Vikings game taking place this week, this rematch would likely be receiving more national attention considering all the trash talk that came out of the Dolphins 31-27 Monday Night victory three weeks ago. The Jets have dominated this AFC East rivalry since 1992, going 23-9 ATS, including 10-4-3 here at home. Miami is off a horrible loss last week to New Orleans and could not even cover as 6.5-point dogs despite leading 24-3 in the 2nd quarter. This is their first road game in four weeks.

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NFL Week 8 Preview (Part 1)

2009-10-29T23:08:00.000-07:00

Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week’s games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures as we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays. Be sure not to miss our 25* NFL Revenge Game of the Year on Sunday! We are on a 6-1 with 25 star selections in College and NFL combined.

Denver at Baltimore – Both teams are coming off bye weeks and both teams started the season 3-0. Unfortunately for the Ravens, while Denver has gone onto win three more games, they have lost three straight. The Ravens have been a good team coming off the bye, covering six of seven in this situation. Here’s something you probably don’t know; Ravens RB Ray Rice leads the league in total yards from scrimmage. Denver has the best defense in the league, allowing just 11 PPG. Baltimore and the Under have cashed five of the past six head to head meetings.

Cleveland at Chicago – With so many bad teams in the NFL right now, we’ve been accustomed to multiple double-digit favorites every week. Such is the case with the hapless Browns, who are so bad that the 3-3 Bears are nearly two touchdown favorites here. QB Cutler has been much better at Soldier Field this year where he is 2-0 with 4 TD passes and zero INT’s (10 INT’s on the road). Cleveland, who has yet to score more than 20 points in any game this season, is 6-2-1 ATS in pre-bye week games, but 2-8-1 ATS off a loss. Both teams lost by 28+ points last week.

Houston at Buffalo – Monitor the status of Texans WR Andre Johnson, who suffered a bruised lung in last week’s 24-21 win over San Francisco. For Houston, who alternated losses and wins through the first six games, it was the first time they’ve won BB gamed all season and they are now 4-3 for just the 2nd time in franchise history. Buffalo has also won back to back games, although they were outgained 425-167 last week at Carolina. The Bills have not won a pre-bye week game this decade. Houston is 4-16 ATS all-time on the road off a SU win and is 0-3 SU as a road favorite.

NFL Week 6 Preview - II

2009-10-18T23:08:00.001-07:00

Baltimore (44.5) at Minnesota (-3) – The Vikings might be the weakest of the five 5-0 teams in the league right now. This is the start of a tough three-game stretch, as they have road games vs. Pittsburgh and Green Bay on deck. Baltimore is 17-7 ATS under HC Harbaugh, but has lost two straight games SU and ATS and is reeling. They have their bye week up next and this will be their first ever visit to the Metrodome. In pre-bye week games, they have covered four straight and gone 6-1 Under.

St. Louis (43) at Jacksonville (-9.5) – How terrible must the Rams be to be 10-point underdogs to a Jags team that lost 41-0. St. Louis is definitely the worst team in the league, scoring just 34 points in five games, and has a point differential of -112. That being said, Jacksonville has failed to cover its last six games as a home favorite. They are also 9-0 ATS all-time after scoring six points or less, so something has to give. St. Louis has lost 15 straight games and 32 of its last 37. This is their first ever visit to Jacksonville, who has won its last four pre-bye week games by an average of 15.8 PPG (4-0 ATS).

NY Giants (47) at New Orleans (-3) – This is a battle of the two best teams in the NFC, if not the entire league. The Giants have just been incredible on the road the past 2+ seasons, going 18-3 ATS. They have covered five straight dome games. They are 13-3 ATS as an underdog. Both teams are unbeaten ATS on the year. New Orleans is 5-1 SU/ATS L6 at home, winning by an average of 14.5 PPG. The Saints have scored 23 or more points in their last 14 games at the Superdome. In other words, something has to give.

Carolina (-3) at Tampa Bay (39) – Here we have a game on the other end of the spectrum. These are actually the last two NFC South Division Champs. Carolina is the only team in the league yet to cover a game. Neither team has scored more than 21 points in any game this year. This is Tampa’s first division game of the season. The Panthers are 0-3-1 ATS L4 division road games, but 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS last six visits to Raymond James Stadium.

NFL Week 6 Preview

2009-10-18T22:48:00.000-07:00

Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week’s games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures as we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays. Be sure not to miss our 25* NFL Trifecta of the Year on Sunday!

Interesting to note that of the 14 games on the Week 6 schedule, six of them have lines of 3.5 or less and six more are -9 or higher…….

Kansas City (37.5) at Washington (-6) – This week the Redskins will become the first team in NFL history to play their first six games against winless opponents. With all the talk surrounding HC Jim Zorn’s job, you’d probably figure that Washington was winless, but it’s the Chiefs that come in at 0-5. This seems like a lot of points to lay with the Skins, who are 0-3 ATS as a favorite and 0-9 ATS L9 vs. the AFC. Interestingly, both teams recorded their first ATS win of the year last week. Kansas City is playing its fourth straight game vs. a team from the NFC East and has lost five straight non-conference games by an average of 18.6 PPG. Washington is 9-0 Under in the favorite role.

Houston (46) at Cincinnati (-4.5) – The Bengals are what the Texans were supposed to be coming into the year, namely the surprise team in the AFC. Cincy has won three games outright in the Underdog role (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore) this year, but is 0-2 ATS as a favorite. In fact, they are 3-10 ATS L13 as chalk. Interestingly, this line has already moved two points in favor of Houston. These teams met last year in Houston and the Texans won easily 35-6.

Cleveland (38) at Pittsburgh (-14) – This is the most lopsided rivalry in the entire league with the Steelers beating the Browns 11 straight times and 16 of the last 17. Double-digit dogs have not done well this year, going 2-8 ATS if you throw out that first week of Monday Night games. Pittsburgh has won seven straight at home vs. division foes, by an average of 15.4 PPG. Cleveland is 1-4 SU/ATS its last five division games on the road, losing by an average of 15.4 PPG. Over the last three seasons, Cleveland is 0-6 ATS on the road after scoring 9 pts or less. Six of the last seven meetings here at Heinz Field have gone Over.

NFL Week 4 Preview (Week 4)

2009-10-05T00:14:00.000-07:00

Dallas at Denver – The Broncos are considered the league’s biggest surprise 3-0 team, but have outscored their previous two opponents by a whopping 50-9 margin. This week, they are one of three unbeatens that will be getting points. This is Dallas’ first visit to Mile High since 1998. While the Cowboys are 1-8 ATS as road dogs, they are also 7-1 ATS as road favorites of seven points or less. Denver has covered just one of its previous nine home games. The last five meetings between the teams have all gone Over.

San Diego at Pittsburgh – Bettors, especially those who had the Steelers, will surely remember last year’s 11-10 SU win/ATS loss when an apparent last second defensive TD was incorrectly nullified costing Pittsburgh the cover. Already at 1-2, this looks like one of those “must-win” games for the home team and the oddsmakers and the public know it, with the line already up to -6.5 by mid week. Pittsburgh has won seven straight home games while going 5-2 ATS. Even worse for San Diego is that home teams are 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS the last six years in pre-Charger bye week games. Norv Turner is 17-5 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points as coach of San Diego.

Green Bay at Minnesota – You may have heard this game will be on ESPN Monday Night as Brett Favre hosts his former team. This could be the most watched football game ever on cable, meaning that there will be a lot of public money. Minnesota has won five straight division home games, but is just 2-3 ATS in those games. They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games overall and the underdog in this rivalry is on a 13-3 ATS run at the Metrodome.

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NFL Week 4 Preview (Week 2)

2009-09-30T23:30:00.000-07:00

NY Giants at Kansas City – What looks like the biggest mismatch on paper in Week 4 could be a potential trap spot for the G-Men. There is a very real possibility they could be 5-0 heading into a road date with New Orleans in Week 6 (they play Oakland next week), but they must fight off taking the 0-3 Chiefs too lightly. This will be the Giants 1st visit to Arrowhead in 14 seasons. That being said, they have covered 17 of their last 20 road games. Last week’s shutout was the franchise’s first since 2005 and first on the road since 1983! Over the last 21 games, Kansas City actually has the same record as the Lions (2-19 SU).

Detroit at Chicago – The streak is finally over in the Motor City as the Lions won for the first time in 20 games last week, upsetting Washington at home, 17-14, as 9.5-point home dogs. It’s been awhile since this trend was applicable, but Detroit is 1-9 ATS on the road off a SU win as a home dog. Now they question is: can the Lions win two straight? Ironically, the franchise’s last road win came here in Chicago, 16-7, back in the seventh game of the ’07 season. They have not won BB games since a three-game win streak that was sandwiched around that victory. The odds makers certainly do not like the Lions chances, opening them as 12-point underdogs here, but note that Chicago is just 1-7 ATS as DD chalk. The Bears had failed to cover seven-straight pre-bye week games before a 48-41 home win over Minnesota last year.

Tampa Bay at Washington – This looks like a horrific game for fans of offense. Tampa Bay has scored just 41 points in three games while Washington is one point worse at 40. Totals bettors will want to know that the Redskins have gone Under eight straight times when favored. As bad as the Bucs have looked, it is difficult to imagine Washington being favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone. In their last 11 games, they have scored 20 or more points just once. After losing in Detroit last week, Redskins HC Jim Zorn’s job would be in major jeopardy were he to lose here. The Bucs have made a QB change, unseating Byron Leftwich for Josh Johnson. Tampa Bay has lost seven straight, dating back to last year, and have a challenging October schedule on tap.

Seattle at Indianapolis – The Colts played their best game of ’09 Sunday night in Arizona and don’t look now, but Peyton Manning and company are now one of seven remaining unbeatens. Seattle has lost two straight after winning its opener. The Seahawks have gone just 2-10 SU and 2-9-1 ATS on the non-conference road since 2002. They are also just 19-44 ATS in the month of October. Off BB road wins on national TV, Indy already has a two-game lead in the AFC South. They are 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS when hosting NFC opponents. The team’s 122 yards rushing last week was the most they’ve had in game since October 28, 2007.

NFL Week 4 Preview (Part 1)

2009-09-30T00:48:00.000-07:00

Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week's games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures and we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays. Be sure not to miss our 2nd 25* Division Game of the Year this Sunday!

Oakland at Houston – The Texans have been a difficult team to figure out in '09, with both losses coming as home favorites and the lone win coming as a road underdog. Meanwhile, after a brief two-week glimmer of hope, the Raiders are back to their horrific ways. Last week's 23-3 home loss to Denver was further proof that JaMarcus Russell is not an NFL-ready QB, and snapped a four-game ATS win streak, the franchise's longest since '02. Oakland's only win thus far came in a game they were outgained 409-168. This has been a bizarre head-to-head series with the underdog winning and covering all four meetings.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – The Titans have already lost as many games this regular season as they did all of last regular season, yet find themselves a road favorite for this division game with Jacksonville. They have lost five games in a row overall (1-4 ATS) and three straight division games (0-3 ATS). The Jags were fortunate to upend Houston last week, recovering a fumble on the potential game-tying TD in the waning minutes for their first win of the year. It would be tough to see Tennessee start 0-4 SU as they are 8-4 SU/ATS at Jacksonville since 1998 and the Jaguars are 2-7 SU and 1-8 their last nine as hosts.

Baltimore at New England – This is the best game on the AFC slate in Week 4 with the 3-time Super Bowl Champions hosting the team that looks like the conference's best through the first three weeks. The Ravens have covered all three games this season and are now 17-5 ATS under HC John Harbaugh. They have outscored 2009 opponents by an average of 16.7 PPG, covering two double-digit spreads. New England just made a statement win at home, knocking off the previously unbeaten Falcons, and resembled the Patriots of old in the 2nd half, outscoring Atlanta 13-0 after the break. They have beaten Baltimore four straight times.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – We could certainly make the case for the Browns being the NFL's worst team as they have been outscored by 25.3 PPG in three SU/ATS losses. They are now 0-8-1 ATS during a nine-game losing streak that dates back to 2008 and have scored just 32 points in four home games during that stretch. Incredibly, the Cleveland offense has scored just ONE offensive TD since Week 11 of last season, using four different QB's. HC Mangini is expected to name the starter on Wednesday. The Bengals are a fluke play away from 3-0 and are now being talked about as a potential sleeper in the AFC. They are looking for BB road wins for the first time since '06.

Key NFL betting angles

2009-09-27T23:46:00.000-07:00

Tennessee (37) at NY Jets (-3) – The Titans are a desperate 0-2 underdog. The Jets are flying high at 2-0, fresh off their upset of the division rival Patriots. This is actually a big revenge game for Tennessee, whose ten-game win streak to start last season was ended by New York, 31-13. That was the highest altitude the Jets were at last year. New York has covered each of the last five meetings. Jeff Fisher’s team is 9-3 SU/ATS L12 road games, however, and 8-1 ATS in the month of September. The Jets are 1-7 ATS in the month of September vs. an opponent off a SU loss as a favorite.

Jacksonville (47) at Houston (-3.5) – This is one division rival that the Texans have done well against, going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS L7 home meetings and 11-3 ATS all-time. Including last week, Houston has gone Over in 11 of its last 13 AFC South games. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is struggling with a 2-6 ATS run in division play. The good news is that they are 4-1 SU when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite. On a natural surface, the Jags have failed to cover 12 of their last 14 games. Houston has covered five straight when coming off a division road game. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU dog win.

Kansas City (40.5) at Philadelphia (-8.5) – The oddsmakers were a bit late posting a number on this matchup as the Eagles come in looking like the walking wounded. QB McNabb is listed as doubtful with Kevin Kolb expected to make his second consecutive start. Both RB Westbrook and WR Jackson have been upgraded to probable. Mike Vick is of course eligible to return and should see action. Kansas City is just 1-13 SU its L14 games overall and was outscored by an average of 29 PPG in non-conference road games last year.

Cleveland (38.5) at Baltimore (-13.5) – This is the biggest spread on the Week 3 board and justifiably so. Cleveland has scored just ONE offensive TD since Week 11 of last year’s regular season. It’s interesting to note that in each of the last three years this rivalry has produced a season sweep. The favorite has won each of the last six meetings here in Baltimore, covering five of those games. The Ravens are also on a 5-0 SU/ATS run when favored by a touchdown or more, including Week One of this season.

NY Giants (-6) at Tampa Bay (44.5) – This is a matchup of one of the NFC’s best against one of its worst. The Bucs defense has been atrocious so far, allowing an average of 33.5 PPG and a total of 900 yards. The Giants could be looking at a 5-0 SU start with the Raiders and Chiefs on deck. They have now covered 16 of their last 19 road games and 12 of 15 conference games. The last seven meetings in this series have all gone Under. Under HC Coughlin, the Giants are 7-1 SU/ATS as road chalk of seven points or less.

Washington (-6.5) at Detroit (38.5) – It’s eighteen straight regular season losses and counting for the Lions. You won’t find a more one-sided series, historically speaking, with the Redskins winning 22 of 24 meetings dating all the way back to 1968. This is just the fourth time in four seasons that Washington will be in the role of road favorite. Taking Minnesota out of the equation, Detroit’s last eight opponents have averaged 37.9 PPG. However, Washington’s 9-7 win over St. Louis last week shows that they are probably not capable of such a performance.

Green Bay (-6) at St. Louis (41) – Our third straight road favorite. The Packers are not protecting Aaron Rodgers enough, giving up 10 sacks in the first two games. Two years ago, Green Bay won here with a similar line, 33-14. This is the Pack’s first road game, but that may not matter considering the team is 16-5 ATS away from Lambeau. All but six of those games have come in the underdog role though. The Rams look really bad. This is the 11^th straight game where they will be an underdog. They have scored seven points in two games.

San Francisco (39) at Minnesota (-6.5) – This is the only meeting of 2-0 teams on the Week 3 card. The key will be the Niners’ phenomenal run defense (just 2.6 YPR, 53 YPG) vs. the incredible Vikings rushing attack (168 YPG), led by Adrian Peterson. This is the home opener for Minnesota and San Francisco has failed to cover in its last four visits here. All is not bad for the visitors, however, as the Vikings are 1-7 ATS as favorites in the month of September vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.

Atlanta (47) at New England (-4.5) – Could this be the year where Atlanta finally puts together back-to-back winning seasons? It has never happened in the franchise’s previous 43 years. Bad news for Falcons fans is a 0-6 ATS mark when coming off BB SU wins. This is the only 2-0 team on the card that is not favored against a non-unbeaten. It is also Atlanta’s road opener, which will be followed by the bye week. The Falcons are on an 11-5-1 ATS run in non-conference games.

Chicago (-2) at Seattle (37) – Note that Seattle opened as the favorite and Chicago is 1-5 SU/ATS its last six road games. The Bears have not won here in 25 years. Over the last three seasons, the Bears are 3-11 ATS coming off a SU win. Tough game to call.

New Orleans (-6) at Buffalo – What a start for the Saints, as they have scored 93 points the first two weeks, something the league has not seen in over 40 years. Buffalo should be 2-0 as well, but gagged badly on MNF in Week 1 vs. the Patriots. The Bills are 8-4 ATS as home dogs under HC Jauron and 15-3 ATS at home vs. the NFC. However, New Orleans is 7-1 SU/ATS as road favorites under HC Peyton and went 4-0 vs. the AFC last year.

Miami (44) at San Diego (-6) – The Dolphins are staring 0-3 right in the face, following a heartbreaking loss to the Colts on Monday Nights. The team is 0-8 ATS off a loss by six points or less, but 6-0 ATS on the road vs. conference opponents. In the last eight meetings, the Fish have won and covered seven times and every game has gone Under. San Diego gained 474 yards of total offense last week vs. the vaunted Baltimore defense.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cincinnati (37) – The Bengals have really struggled at home vs. the Steelers, going just 3-13 SU/ATS! They also have back to back division road games on deck. Pittsburgh has won each of the last five meetings overall, four of those coming by double digits. The Steelers have failed to cover their last 3 games away from home.

Denver (-2) at Oakland (36.5) – The Raiders opened as the favorite, for just the fifth time in 33 games. However, the public quickly got down on the Broncos, who could, inexplicably, begin the year at 3-0. However, they are just 3-15 ATS the last three seasons in division games. Oakland managed to beat Kansas City last week despite just 168 yards of total offense and now is on a 4-0 ATS run dating back to last year, the franchise’s longest ATS win streak since the Super Bowl season of ’02.

Indianapolis (48.5) at Arizona (-3) – Ken Wisenhunt is now 8-2 ATS vs. the AFC as the HC of Arizona. Last week, Kurt Warner set a record by completing 24 of 26 passes. The team is 5-0-1 Over the last six years the week before a bye.

Carolina (47.5) at Dallas (-8.5) – It would be tough to see the Cowboys losing a 2^nd straight game at owner Jerry Jones new billion dollar palace. Carolina looks awful, but the underdog has covered each of their last 12 pre-bye week games.

Ball State Cardinals Flying South

2009-09-27T22:52:00.000-07:00

The Ball State Cardinals had a near dream season last year as they marched through their regular season schedule 12-0 winning the MAC West title with ease.

They did most of this without their star wide receiver Dante Love, who was leading the nation in both yards and catches before suffering a career-ending neck injury in Week Four against Indiana. He was perhaps the MAC’s top NFL prospect until the unfortunate injury.

However, they dropped the MAC Championship game in Detroit to another school that was having a special season in the Buffalo Bulls, 42-24, as 15-point favorites. They still received their bid to the GMAC Bowl, but were smacked 45-13 in a game the linesmakers had them as a small two-point dog. The bad news did not end there, as three-year starting quarterback Nate Davis left after his junior year to enter the NFL draft and was taken by the San Francisco 49ers and Head Coach Brady Hoke left his alma mater and headed to the Pacific coast to take the head spot at San Diego State.

Many bettors who played on the Cardinals throughout the 2008 season saw themselves taking in money as they covered eight of their first 11 lined games. However, with a new head coach and a new quarterback, it has not been good for the Cards’ in 2009. They have dropped three games to open the season. In the home opener against North Texas (1-11 SU last year) they lost 20-10 and then the next week (also at home) they lost to FCS New Hampshire 23-16. Then last week in their first road game they lost to Army, 24-17.

Stan Parrish, who was the Offensive Coordinator the last three years, took over the head coaching duties and he installed a new leader of his offense in redshirt freshman quarterback Kelly Page. Page has not been very good as he has completed just 45.7% of his passes for 408 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions through three games.

It also does not help much that four of the five offensive linemen from last year were lost to graduation.

Running back Miquale Lewis, who rushed for over 1,700 yards and 22 TD’s last year, has also been hampered by the new O-line as he has just 141 yards and one touchdown on 41 carries. That is two yards less per carry than he had one year ago.

They are awaited this Saturday by a hungry Auburn Tigers team in Alabama where the Cardinals are 33-point underdogs. With all that being said, it will certainly be a long year for Ball State’s football program.

NFL Week 2 Preview

2009-09-20T23:55:00.000-07:00

Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week’s games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures and we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays. Be sure not to miss our NFC East Game of the Year this Sunday Night on Giants at Cowboys!

Oakland (38) at Kansas City (-3): Both the line and total have been dropping despite the Raiders coming in off a short week. Note that the underdog in this series is on an 8-1 ATS run this decade at Arrowhead Stadium. Overall, the visitor has covered six straight times and won the past five meetings outright. The loser here figures to be the early favorite for worst team in the AFC. The Chiefs have covered five straight division games while the Raiders are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four division road games.

Houston (40.5) at Tennessee (-6.5): Loser here also falls to 0-2 SU. The Titans have won and covered five of the past six meetings. The Texans are on a 1-6 ATS run in Week 2 and have gone 1-4 SU/ATS last five road openers. However, they have covered six of their last seven division games. Tennessee was 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS at home last year and 4-2 SU/ATS in the division. They have also covered eight straight September games. Houston has gone Over in nine straight games against an opponent off a road game.

New England (-3) at NY Jets (45.5): Line has dropped significantly and we don’t know why. The Patriots have covered six straight division road games (12-1 SU/ATS L13). The Jets have gone just 2-13 ATS since ’92 at home during the first two weeks of the season. Even more impressive about New England is the fact that they’ve covered 10 straight games at the Meadowlands (9-1 SU). During the Eric Mangini era, New York was an awful 1-7-1 ATS at home vs. division opponents. Jets players are calling this game their “Super Bowl.”

Cincinnati (42) at Green Bay (-9.5): The Bengals come off an awful loss to Denver while the Packers come off a last-minute win over Chicago. First time Cincinnati has played in Green Bay since ’95. Pack won and covered 3 of 4 AFC games LY. Cincy is 2-6 SU/3-5 ATS L8 road openers. The bad news for the Cheese Heads is a 1-5-1 ATS mark the week after playing the Bears. For what it’s worth, the Bengals went 4-0 ATS vs. the NFC last year, doing so against the tough NFC East no less.

St. Louis (36.5) at Washington (-9.5): A winless Rams team went into the Nation’s Capital last year and upset a 4-1 Redskins team that was favored by 13 points, so stranger things have happened. However, St. Louis was the only team to get shutout in Week 1 and is on an astounding 0-9 SU/ATS run during the month of September. Meanwhile, the news isn’t going for Washington either as they are just 9-21 ATS in September home games and just 6-11 ATS L17 when favored.

Seattle (39) at San Francisco (-1.5): This sets up as a pretty important game in the NFC West as the winner be the lone unbeaten and it’s probably only going to take nine wins to seal the division. The Niners were outgained in last week’s win over Arizona. Seattle is 5-2 SU/ATS run at San Francisco and 8-3 SU/7-4 ATS L11 overall. 49ers have failed to cover six of seven as division hosts while Seahawks are 1-9 ATS after coming off a double-digit win.

Tampa Bay (42) at Buffalo (-5.5): The key is how will the Bills respond emotionally after gagging away a sure fire MNF winner in New England. Believe it or not, but this is the first time EVER Tampa Bay will be playing in Buffalo. For sure, they are thankful the game is being played in September and not December. Buffalo has never covered in five all-time meetings, but this could be the shot as they are 14-3 ATS the week after playing the Patriots. Tampa Bay allowed 462 yards to Dallas last week.

Cleveland (37.5) at Denver (-3): As bad as Denver was thought to be coming into the regular season, they have a great shot at a good start with the Browns, then the Raiders on deck. The Broncos were the worst pointspread team in the league last year, going 0-8 ATS at home and they were favored in all of those games. In fact, they are just 5-19 ATS at home since ’06 and 3-15 ATS when favored in any setting. Cleveland has lost seven straight games to Denver and this is must win for QB Brady Quinn.

Baltimore (40.5) at San Diego (-3): The scoreboard read just 38-24 in favor of Baltimore last week in Kansas City, but they outgained the Chiefs by a whopping 501-188 margin. San Diego, however, has covered seven straight home games when coming off a SU win. The host has won and covered five of the past six meetings. The Ravens are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS L8 road openers. The key is which Chargers team shows up. RB LaDanian Tomlinson is a game time decision.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Chicago (37.5): It was a disastrous debut for Bears QB Jay Cutler, who tossed a career-high four INT’s vs. Green Bay last week. Now he must face a Steelers defense, albeit one without S Troy Polamalu, that ranked #1 in every major defensive category last season. The 320 yards Pittsburgh allowed to Tennessee last week was more than all but two teams gained on them last year. Pittsburgh is just 10-15 ATS L25 road games. Lovie Smith is a terrible head coach.

The ACC: Celebrating Mediocrity, One Week at a Time

2009-09-20T23:13:00.000-07:00

Our three-plus decades on "both sides of the counter" tell us that the Atlantic Coast Conference is going to be very difficult to handicap this year. The league has no great teams, no clear-cut favorite, but at the same time does have a bevy of good/decent teams. Last year, the ACC sent a record 10 teams to bowl games (only Duke and Virginia missed out). This year, they could match that.

When the conference was expanded to 12 teams and two divisions, the ACC was supposed to take its place right alongside the SEC and the Big 12 as one ofthe preeminent leagues in all of College Football. Miami FL and Virginia Tech, then Boston College, all coming over from the Big East, was supposed to pay huge dividends, but quite simply that has not happened although both the Hokies and the Eagles have won ACC titles since coming over. Miami has
been somewhat of a flop, going just .500 over the last three seasons. However, that could change this season.

The one similarity the ACC does share with the Big 12 is that the quality of play is not even between the two divisions. Like the South over the North in the Big 12, the Coastal Division clearly holds a competitive advantage over its Atlantic counterparts in the ACC. With Miami's 33-17 thrashing of Georgia Tech still fresh in our minds (we cashed the 'Canes as a CFB Oddsmaker Mismatch), we thought now would be the perfect time to start delving into some ACC Football, all for your benefit!

Atlantic Division
All three top contenders in the Atlantic have already suffered a loss, making this race wide open. Believe it or not, but coming into the year we had pegged NC State as the most likely to win this division. After all, in 2008, freshman QB and 1st team All-Conference Russell Wilson led the team to eight straight covers to end the season. However, the Wolfpack began the season by scoring just three points at home in an outright loss to South Carolina.

We won't hear much from Tom O' Brien's team in the coming weeks as this Saturday they play a second straight FCS opponent (Gardner-Webb). They join league "bottom-feeders" Maryland, Duke and Virginia as the only teams in the conference not to play a league game in the month of September, so the jury is still out on NC State. They do have a non-conference shot at redemption when they host Pitt on 9/26.

The other two main contenders, Clemson and Florida State, each lost their ACC openers. Florida State lost outright at home, 38-34, to Miami (FL) on Labor Day. That was followed up with an uninspired 10-pt win over FCS Jacksonville State last Saturday. Now the Seminoles must travel to BYU in a game where they will be seven-point underdogs. Could be a 1-2 start for Bobby Bowden and they still have five ACC road games to come! Don't forget they finish with Florida! Looks like another .500ish season in Talahassee Clemson is overrated every year and always gets outcoached. They opened league play by falling behind 24-0 at Georgia Tech before rallying for the cover (L 27-30, +5). They'll host BC on Saturday, then welcome in BCS busting hopeful TCU in a big non-conference tilt the following week. Could be some value on the Tigers in that game (15-1 SU hosting non-ACC opponents). They only have three more league road games left and get to host Florida State on 11/7. Maybe this is the year for Clemson?

We don't think much of the other three teams in the Atlantic. Boston College is going to be really bad. They have no QB and a 3rd different head coach in five seasons. Wake Forest has senior signal caller in Riley Skinner, but already lost at home to Baylor and must replace their top five tacklers from last year's defensive unit. Maryland is RB Da'Rel Scott and not much else.

Coastal Division
Immediately disregard Duke and Virginia as contenders, although we'll talk more about them as the season progresses if we ever find some line value in a particular matchup. The Coastal is a four team race with Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Next Saturday, we have the Hokies hosting the Hurricanes, which will determine the early favorite to win the entire conference.

The ACC isn't the only conference celebrating mediocrity. Next week, we'll discuss Conference USA, which is even more rife with "even steven" teams.

In two weeks, we'll check back in with the ACC to see how things are progressing.

For more information visit http://www.vegasexperts.com/

Why Green Bay Will Win the NFC

2009-09-13T22:57:00.000-07:00

When I selected the Green Bay Packers to cash at 17/2 odds to win the NFC Championship, I expected some would perceive it as a stretch. However, imagine my surprise the following morning when I turned on ESPN and saw noted "talking head" Skip Bayless as well as NFL analyst (and former player) Jon Ritchie do the same!

What in the world could be going on that three people who follow the game so closely would pick a team one season removed from a 6-10 record to come back and advance to the Super Bowl the following season?

Well, for starters, the NFL is a parity ridden league. Thanks to our good friend Larry Ness, we know the turnover rate amongst playoff entrants from one season to the next is around 50%. That means roughly six of the 12 playoff teams from the previous year will not find themselves in the postseason the following year. Sure, you’ll have your obvious choices for repeat appearances (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego), but you also need to do your homework and identify those teams most likely to fall off (Miami, Tennessee, Carolina). In addition, if you dig deep enough, you will be able to identify some teams that failed to make the playoffs in 2008 that will be Super Bowl contenders in 2009.

Everyone is picking New England, with the return of a healthy Tom Brady at QB, to make the leap. Because of this, the return on investment is very poor for those betting on a Patriots’ return to glory. Therefore, we return to the subject at hand, the Green Bay Packers.

The stat you are most likely to hear quoted by Packers backers is that seven of last year’s 10 losses came by four points or less, an NFL record. The prevailing theory amongst NFL bettors is that teams who suffer innumerable narrow defeats will see the "ball bounce the other way" the following season. If Green Bay won even three of those games a year ago, they would have been a 9-7 team.

Then, you have the fact that two years ago the Packers were a 13-3 SU team that found themselves hosting the NFC Title Game and they would have won that contest if not for a dumb interception thrown by Brett Favre in overtime against the Giants.

Favre is of course now gone and that brings us to Aaron Rodgers, who last season faced the tall task of filling the "old gunslinger’s" shoes. You could point the finger at many individuals for the Pack’s losing season, but Rodgers is not one of them. In his first full season as a starter, he threw for over 4000 yards and 28 touchdowns. It is believed by just about everyone that Rodgers will have an even better season in 2009 and you can count me in that group.

Then you have what we’ve already seen from Green Bay this year. During the preseason, Rodgers and the first-team offense were on the field for 13 possessions. Nine of those resulted in touchdowns and only one in a punt. The defense, which already featured one of the best secondaries in the league, has undergone a 3-4 transformation under the tutelage of Dom Capers, a scheme that has not been seen in this division since 1994.

Finally, you have the division foes. Chicago and Minnesota grabbed all the national attention in the offseason by bringing in marquee QB’s Jay Cutler and Brett Favre. Rodgers is better than both, by the way. Cutler has no one to throw to in Chicago and we expect a "Jets-like" outcome for the Vikings with Favre at the helm. Detroit is of course awful and should be considered a non-factor.

There you have it! The Green Bay Packers will win the 2009 NFC Championship Game.

Big Ten vs. MAC

2009-09-11T03:15:00.000-07:00

The Big Ten Conference’s lower tier of teams suffered some embarrassing losses last season at the hands of the region’s other conference, the Mid-American Conference. As College Football bettors already know, schools from these two conferences will meet in several non-conference matchups this season. Let’s take a look at how they matchup.

If it wasn’t bad enough being the worst team in the Big Ten last year, the Indiana Hoosiers were also nipped by two MAC squads last season at home. They first ran into the Ball State Cardinals. This was the game where the nation’s leading receiver Dante Love bruised his spine and ended his football career. After losing Love early in the second quarter and Indiana returning his fumble for a touchdown to make it a one-point game, the Cardinals outscored the Hoosiers 28-7 the rest of the way. Many bettors who wagered on this game may have had their stomach drop when Love went down, but they did not even need the three points as Ball State won outright.

The Hoosiers losing was not done with yet against the MAC.In late October, they lost another home game in which they were favored losing outright to Central Michigan 37-34. They allowed the Chippewas offense to pass for 485 yards. This year the Hoosiers come in with a new starting quarterback, running back and have to replace their top receiver. They opened the season with a very unconvincing 19-13 win over FCS (formerly I-AA) Eastern Kentucky. This Saturday they will face another MAC school in Western Michigan, who went 1-0 against the Big Ten last year. That win was against the Illinois Fighting Illini, who also struggled last season. The Broncos nipped the Illini 23-17 outright as a seven-point underdog. This game was the difference for Illinois being Bowl eligible or not as they ended up 5-7 on the year. The Illini left the MAC off the schedule this season.

The biggest upset the MAC pulled off was against one of the Big Ten’s most storied programs in the Michigan Wolverines. The 1-4 Toledo Rockets came into Ann Arbor and shocked the Michigan faithful with a 13-10 victory as a 16-point underdog. The Wolverines missed a 26-yard field goal with four seconds left in the game with a chance to tie it. The betting world was in an uproar depending on which side you were on in the game.If you had Toledo on the money line for some reason, you were up big time as they were +455.Michigan opened their season this year with a 31-7 winner over a highly touted WesternMichigan. In two weeks they get another look at the MAC when they host Eastern Michigan.

2009 Projected NFL Standings

2009-09-11T02:15:00.000-07:00

We took a look at all of the posted NFL futures at our recommended online sportsbooks, did some of our own research and have come up with our projected 2009 standings for the NFL Season. In addition, we provide our playoff projections. You can find winning football picks every day at Vegasexperts.com throughout the NFL and College Football seasons!

AFC East

New England 12-4 (They will not make the Super Bowl b/c of defense, but offense is #1 in football)

Miami 9-7 (originally I thought much worse, but I just can’t find a more likely 6^th best team in the AFC)

Buffalo 8-8 (too many OL problems)

NY Jets 7-9 (A Rookie QB w/ no supporting cast)

AFC North

Pittsburgh 12-4 (the team has no holes, but it is so hard to repeat)

Baltimore 9-7 (defense will miss Rex Ryan, Flacco sophomore slump)

Cincinnati 7-9 (they’ll probably be either two games better or worse, could surprise)

Cleveland 6-10 (Mangini finally realized season starts this week and went with Quinn)

AFC South

Indianapolis 10-6 (gutless pick)

Houston 10-6 (“just due” – this is best team in franchise history)

Tennessee 8-8 (they are something like 4-17 all-time without Albert Haynesworth!)

Jacksonville 6-10 (what happened to this team?)

AFC West

San Diego 13-3 (Easiest division ever, Merriman is back and offense will be even better)

Oakland 5-11 (They have the talent but Al Davis has to “go away” before things improve)

Kansas City 4-12 (This could be the worst offense in football)

Denver 2-14 (Worst team in the league)

Playoffs:

Byes: San Diego and New England

Wild Card Round: Pittsburgh over Miami, Indianapolis over Houston

Divisional Playoffs: San Diego over Indianapolis, Pittsburgh over New England

AFC Championship: San Diego (4:1 odds to win AFC Champ.) over Pittsburgh

NFC East

Philadelphia 11-5 (I liked them much better before Vick)

NY Giants 9-7 (I love when people say things like “the Giants will be fine w/out Plaxico Burress.” Did they not watch the last month of 2008?)

Dallas 8-8 (They lose their best WR and people actually think they’ll be better?)

Washington 6-10 (Every year this team does better than I think they will)

NFC North

Green Bay 11-5 (First team offense scored 9 TD’s in 13 possessions this preseason)

Chicago 10-6 (Offense was actually better statistically than defense last year!)

Minnesota 9-7 (Picking up Favre was worst move of offseason by any team)

Detroit 3-13 (Winning 3 more games than previous year is usually awesome, but….)

NFC South

New Orleans 10-6 (Team that finished last in NFC South has come back to make playoffs next year every season since realignment)

Atlanta 9-7 (There is a lot of talent here. But Falcons have NEVER posted BB winning seasons!)

Carolina 8-8 (On one hand they have 21 of 22 returning starters back. Unfortunately, one of them is Jake Delhomme)

Tampa Bay 4-12 (Terrible team)

NFC West

San Francisco 9-7 (going out on a limb. I like Mike Singletary that much)

Seattle 8-8 (everyone’s sleeper pick. They were 4-12 last year and have Jim Mora Jr as their coach)

Arizona 7-9 (Super Bowl loser has not made playoffs following year 7 of L8 seasons)

St. Louis 5-11 (possibly the most irrelevant team in the league)

Playoffs

Byes: Philadelphia and Green Bay

Wild Card Rd: Chicago over San Francisco, New Orleans over Atlanta

Divisional Playoffs: Philadelphia over Chicago, Green Bay over New Orleans

NFC Championship: Green Bay (17:2 odds to win the NFC Champ.) over Philadelphia

Super Bowl: San Diego (9:1 odds to win SBXLIV) over Green Bay

Alabama and Virginia Tech Open on ABC

2009-09-01T20:15:00.000-07:00

The College Football season starts this weekend and the marquee game on the card has Alabama squaring off against Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome. The ABC team will be in Atlanta to kick off the 2009 Season.

This will be Nick Saban's third season in Tuscaloosa and so far so good. Last year the Tide rolled through the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record. It didn't end very well in the post season as the Crimson lost to Florida in the SEC Championship game 31-20, just missing covering the 11-point line. Alabama had some end of the season internal issues and laid an egg in the Sugar Bowl getting embarrassed by Utah 31-17 as lofty 10-point favorites.

Last year's Bama team was built on defense as they allowed only 14 points per game and allowed the fewest touchdowns in all of college football. They were nearly impossible to run the football on as they allowed only 2.7 yards per carry. Will the defense be as tough again this season? All indications are yes as the Tide returns eight of those defensive starters.

Alabama's offense was hot and cold last season and they have a lot of rebuilding to do. They return only four offensive starters and Saban is very worried about his offensive line. Last year, their big offensive line allowed the Tide to rush for 185 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. However, they lost three of those big guys up front and the jury is still out on whether the new guys will be able to control the line of scrimmage like they did last season.

The biggest question on offense is the quarterback position. The starter is Greg McElroy, who is a junior that saw little playing time last season. Saban and the Bama coaches like his ability but don't like his inexperience. The good news for Bama is that they have a stable of talented running backs. Look for McElroy to run a ball control offense, at least early on.

It's pretty much business as usual in Blacksburg as Coach Frank Beamer returns for his 23rd season. Last year Beamer took an inexperienced Hokies squad to a 10-4 season. If you look inside those numbers you'll find that Virginia Tech's four losses were by an average of 5.5 points per game with their worst loss a 30-20 defeat at Florida State. However, the Hokies are normally a pretty good team at the betting window but last season they disappointed the alumni with a 6-7 ATS record.

Virginia Tech has a number of hurdles to jump over in this big game against Bama. They lost their starting tailback to a knee injury a month ago and will be counting on inexperienced tailbacks to replace starter Darren Evans. Can a Tech offensive line which was very suspect last season contain an experienced and very talented Bama defensive front?

The Sportsbooks are backing the SEC over the ACC in this neutral field game as they have installed Alabama as 7-point favorites. Tech has been money burners against non-conference opponents over the past few years posting a 2-9 against the pointspread. Last year, Alabama opened up their season with another ACC team, Clemson. It wasn't much of a game as the Tide crushed the Tigers 34-10. The books had the line on that game way off as Alabama was a 4-point underdog. Bama's defense controlled the game not allowing Clemson to rush for a single yard, that's right the Tigers recorded no yards rushing. Can Virginia Tech restore some creditability for the ACC by staying with this powerful Alabama team?

The Vegas Experts, the nation's foremost sports handicapping site, has winning against the pointspread reports on this big ABC TV game and all of the games in this opening week of the College Football Season. Check them out at http://www.vegasexperts.com!

Two Dogs That Might Be Barking On Saturday

2009-09-01T18:54:00.000-07:00

In the world of sports betting, everybody loves an underdog. When sports bettors wager on the dog and “take the points,” they are assuring themselves of a winning bet as long as two of the possible three outcomes takes place against the pointspread. Either the underdog can lose the game and stay within the number, or even better they can take the game outright and make the sportsbooks look like fools. In other words, as long as the favorite does not put forth a better than expected performance, you are going to be in good shape.

College Football bettors are no different and with opening weekend of the 2009 season just days away everyone wants to know which team(s) will pull off a big upset on the first Saturday of the year. It was two years ago when FCS Appalachian State shocked the world and beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Last year saw a more “traditional” opening weekend upset when four-point underdog Alabama clobbered preseason ACC favorite Clemson in the Georgia Dome, 34-10.

Who might pull off the upset this year? Vegas Experts has identified a pair of dogs that just might be barking very loudly come September 3rd, 2009.

The once-proud Michigan football program has fallen on hard times. The “Maize and Blue” may have a mutiny on their hands as reportedly six current and former players anonymously went to the media to “tell on” second year head coach Rich Rodriguez for violations that include requiring more practice time per week than is allotted by NCAA guidelines. One look at the Wolverines’ season last year reveals that this team should have spent more time on the practice field as they went just 3-9 SU (worst season ever in Ann Arbor) and were a horrible 0-6 at the betting window when favored.

Enter “in-state rival” Western Michigan, who comes into the Big House this weekend as double-digit underdogs. This MAC representative is much better than the Toledo team that came to Michigan last year and upset the Wolverines, 13-10, as 16-point pups. The Broncos feature a senior signal caller in Tim Hiller, who threw for 3725 yards and 36 touchdowns in ‘08. They went 9-4 SU last season and although they did not fare well in their bowl game, WMU did pull off a late season upset over another Big Ten team (Illinois) despite losing two WR’s, a RB, TE and CB in that 23-17 (+7) win.

The Broncos are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games vs. Big Ten opponents, including a win at Iowa in the 2007 season. The only problem may be only three returning starters on defense, but note that Michigan will be tinkering with as many as THREE different QB’s under center in this game. With the 11th ranked passing attack in the nation, taking Western Michigan and the points is the way to go in our opinion.

With a schedule that is perceived to be much “softer” than recent years, everyone seems to be high on Charlie Weis and Notre Dame this year. However, that is going to lead to a lack of line value with the Fighting Irish all season long and Week One is no different as they welcome in a gimmicky Nevada team that will be getting as much as two touchdowns on the betting line.

The Wolfpack are projected to challenge perennial conference power Boise State for the WAC title this year and with 14 returning starters they might just have the horses to get the job done. They have one of the best backfields in the country, which ran for an average of 278 yards per game. Chris Ault’s “Pistol Offense” is led by junior quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who is 6’6” and 215 lbs, but ran for 1,130 yards and 17 touchdowns to go along with 2,848 yards and a 22-7 TD-INT ratio in ’08. Boise State HC Chris Peterson called Kaepernick “the most difficult player to defend” in the WAC. Take the points here as well.

The Vegas Experts, the nation’s foremost sports handicapping site, has winning against the pointspread reports on this big ABC TV game and all of the games in this opening week of the College Football Season. Check them out at http://www.vegasexperts.com!

Key Pac 10 Betting Angles

2009-08-31T20:36:00.000-07:00

California is 5-0 SU vs. the Big 10 since 2002 with an avg win by 16 PPG. They have a big revenge spot to open the season vs. Maryland as LY they lost at College Station (9:00 AM PST start) falling behind 21-3 before a 3 TD 4th quarter rally fell short.

USC has won eight straight non-conference BCS road games. Since 2002, the Trojans are 8-0 SU off a regular season loss with an avg margin of victory coming by 20 PPG. They have outscored Notre Dame by 27 PPG since 2002.

Stanford is just 4-7 SU vs. the ACC and will be making just its 3rd road trip to the EST since ’98 when they face Wake Forest in Wk 2. They have lost 12 of 16 to UCLA, including five straight. The home team has won eight of nine in Stanford/Arizona State games.

Arizona is 4-0 all-time vs. the MAC w/ avg MOV by 25 PPG. They have lost 9 of 10 to Oregon State and seven straight to USC (by avg of 21 PPG). Home team is 5-1 SU when Arizona plays Arizona State.

UCLA has suffered five straight losses at USC by an average of 25 PPG. The host in the Bruins/Cal series has won nine straight times.

Oregon State is just 4-19-1 vs. OSU since 1980 and the visitor in this series has lost eight of nine. Visitor had lost 10 straight in rivalry with Oregon before road wins each of the last two years.

Oregon is 28-2 SU at home vs. non-conf teams, but lost vs. Boise State last year. Ducks are 6-2 L8 vs. UCLA with home team winning three straight.

Arizona State is 0-4 vs. the SEC. They have lost four straight to Oregon by an average of 24 PPG.

Washington has lost all three BCS non-conf home games since ’04 by an avg of 26 PPG.

Washington State is 1-5 SU vs. non-conf BCS teams with avg loss coming by 22 PPG.

For more information visit http://www.vegasexperts.com

2009 Pac 10 Preview

2009-08-31T18:56:00.000-07:00

For seven consecutive seasons, Pete Carroll's Trojans of Southern California have reigned supreme in the Pac 10. Each of the last two years, it could be argued that USC was the best team in the country at season's end, but on neither occasion did they get to play for the BCS Title as early season losses cost them a shot at doing so. As we prepare to enter the 2009 season, all the talk surrounding the Pac 10 Conference is about how if there was ever a year where Southern Cal was NOT going to win the league, it will be this year.
Be careful picking against the Trojans however as only one of the conference's other nine teams stands a chance at unseating them and that would be California, who faces an easier non-conference schedule and gets to host Pete Carroll's team on October 3rd.

Here is our outlook for the 2009 Pac 10 Conference:

Count us in on the bandwagon of folks that believe Cal will unseat USC atop the Pac 10 standings. The Bears return 15 starters, most importantly the best RB in the country, Jahvid Best, who ran for an astounding 8.1 yards per carry in 2008! As mentioned above, they get to host USC on 10/3. The Bears still must play five Pac 10 road games, but only one of them comes against a team that went bowling last season. More importantly, there are too many issues with USC to pick them to win an eighth straight league title. For the first time in Carroll's tenure, he will be starting consecutive seasons with a new QB and this year it will be true freshman Matt Barkley. All this true frosh has to do is navigate a first half schedule that includes three road trips to face teams that rank in our top 12 in the country (Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame). Way too difficult a task.

The two sleeper, darkhorse picks from Pac 10 insiders this year are Arizona and Stanford. Last year saw Arizona HC Mike Stoops (Bob's younger brother) lead the program to its first bowl game since '98, so there is plenty of reason for optimism in Tucson. However, the loss of Willie Tuitama at QB is going to hurt. So too does road trips to both Cal and USC as well as a non-conference road date with Iowa. On the other hand, we love what Jim Harbaugh has done at Stanford. The Cardinal should have been playing in a bowl last year, but lost its final three games and had three losses by a TD or less. They close the season with USC, Cal and Notre Dame, but only one of those games is away from Palo Alto.

Oregon had been a model of consistency in this league under former HC Mike Belotti, but new man Chip Kelly inherits just nine returning starters. Expect a drop in the standings. In-state rival Oregon State has also been very consistent (three straight 3rd place finishes) and has one of the best RB in the country in Jacquizz Rodgers. The cause for concern is just three returning starters on defense. We like UCLA to make a jump in the standings and return to a bowl in HC Rick Neuheisel's second season with 16 starters back. Their 44 starts lost to injury were 6th most in FBS last year.

Looking at the bottom of the league, we start with Arizona State, who better get off to at least a 4-2 start because the second half of the schedule sees few opportunities for victories. Washington, by definition, can only improve (winless last year) under 1st year HC Steve Sarkisian and the Huskies actually possess the league's best signal caller in playmaker Jake Locker. Washington State is a disaster as they were a miserable -272.7 YPG in league play last year, getting outscored by an average of 41 PPG.

For more information visit http://www.vegasexperts.com

Key ACC Betting Trends

2009-08-25T00:24:00.000-07:00

Following are Key ACC Betting Trends

NC State went 9-2 ATS last regular season and will get a shot at avenging one of those losses in Wk 1 vs. South Carolina. Prior to LY’s loss, the Wolfpack had beaten the Gamecocks four straight times – all by double digits. They have not won at Boston College since 1937. They have lost five straight to Clemson.

Florida State lost to Georgia Tech for the first time since 1975 last year and has lost to Wake Forest three straight times after going 21-2-1 prior. They are 14-1-1 all-time vs. North Carolina. The visitor is 4-0 SU all-time in ACC meetings between FSU and Boston College.

Clemson beat Boston College for the 1^st time since ’58 (0-6 previous) LY. They are 14-1 SU hosting non-conf opponents (play TCU this year) and the visitor has won four straight meetings when the Tigers play Maryland. The home team is 7-2 SU in Clemson vs. Florida State games.

Wake Forest is just 2-12 SU but beat Baylor LY (open the season against them again this year). In nine home games vs. non-conf BCS teams, seven have been decided by a touchdown or less. They have beaten Duke nine straight times and scored 41+ in all four road games.

Boston College is 0 for 7 against Butch Davis’ coached teams all-time. Home team is 4-1 SU in the last five WF/BC games. BC/Maryland winner has prevailed by an average of 12 PPG.

Maryland is just 6-16 in road openers and must travel to Cal this year. Terps are 5-1 SU all-time vs. Sun Belt with avg win coming by 13 PPG. They have beaten Duke 5 straight times by an avg of 27 PPG. They are 6-2 SU vs. ranked opponents the last two years.

Virginia Tech is 11-2 SU all-time in season openers with both losses coming on a neutral site. They have shutout Duke in three of the last six meetings. They are 5-0 SU vs. North Carolina since joining the ACC. The Hokies have won 22 straight non-conf home games (vs. non-BCS) by an avg of 33 PPG.

Georgia Tech has seen 10 of the last 13 meetings with Clemson decided by five points or less. They are 9-2 SU in 11 road openers. Visitor is 2-12 SU in GT/Virginia series. They are 10-3 SU vs. Miami.

North Carolina was 5-14 in non-conf play before last year (4-1). They are also 4-12 SU in conference road games. They will play their first ever Thursday night home game on 10/22 vs. Florida State and the last four wins over Duke have come by an average of just 5 PPG.

Miami (FL) has lost four straight to Georgia Tech and have scored more than 16 PPG just once vs. VT since ’03. The Hurricanes are at 8-1 SU in home non-conf games with avg MOV coming by 21 PPG. The visitor is 1-8 SU in Miami/North Carolina games.

Virginia is only 4-3 SU vs. MWC and 3-6 SU vs. Conference USA. Visitor is 2-7 in UVA/UNC games. The Cavaliers are just 4-13 SU vs. Big Ten opponents. They are 8-36-1 vs. Clemson all-time, including 29 straight losses to begin the series. They have lost 5 straight and 9 of 10 to Virginia Tech.

Duke has lost 10 straight road openers by 14 PPG and has lost its last 20 road ACC games overall. They are 1-13 vs. Georgia Tech.

ACC Coastal Division Preview

2009-08-24T23:58:00.000-07:00

Unlike the Atlantic Division, there does appear to be a clear cut favorite in the Coastal with Virginia Tech leading a total of three ranked teams amongst this group. While the Hokies are going to be everyone’s preseason pick, we are more intrigued by what is going on down in Atlanta and Chapel Hill with Paul Johnson and Butch Davis as both Georgia Tech and North Carolina appear poised for breakthrough seasons.

Virginia Tech will start the season in the same manner that last year’s preseason ACC favorite, Clemson, did by playing Alabama in Atlanta. For the Hokies’ sake, they hope the results are a bit better than a 34-10 drubbing. This actually looks like a much better team than the one that won the league title last year (had just 10 returning starters). The 2008 team benefited from a +14 TO margin and was just fifth in the ACC at +34.0 YPG. Alabama, Nebraska and East Carolina is a brutal non-conference schedule with two of those games away from Blacksburg, but VT should post its sixth straight double-digit win season.

What an incredible debut it was for Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech in 2008. Bringing in the complex triple-option offense, few expected a nine win season from the Yellow Jackets, yet that is exactly what they delivered. They were a league best +68.1 YPG, despite just nine returning starters on both sides of the ball. They have the most returning starters (18) in the entire ACC and we would not be surprised at all to see this team win the conference in just Johnson’s second season.

We are also high on North Carolina, who could have been much better than last year’s 8-5 finish if not for injuries at the QB position, which certainly cost them the game vs. Virginia Tech and thus the division title. HC Davis has had three straight great recruiting classes and this appears to be his best team yet. They have two FBS teams on the non-conference schedule + Virginia at home, so anything less than a 5-1 SU start is unacceptable. Note that UNC had lost 20 straight road games outside of the Tar Heel State prior to last year when they won their first two. It would not surprise us to see a three-team tie atop the division standings.

Some feel that Randy Shannon has the most talented team in the league at Miami this year, but the schedule is so brutal that it may not reflect in the final ACC standings. They open the year with three tough league games (at FSU, G Tech, at Virginia Tech), then must host Oklahoma, which means a 1-3 SU start is likely. Note that Shannon has yet to beat a Top Ten team during his tenure.

Virginia and Duke were the two ACC teams not to make a bowl game last season. They enter ’09 again as the two weakest teams in the league with each returning only 11 starters. UVA started the year miserably last year, but HC Al Groh rallied to lead the team to wins in four of its final seven games and the Cavs actually outgained ACC opponents (barely). Duke blew possibly its best shot at bowl eligibility in over a decade and despite two FBS opponents on this year’s slate will not end a 15 year bowl drought.

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ACC Atlantic Division Preview

2009-08-24T23:16:00.000-07:00

When Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College were all brought over from the Big East, the Atlantic Coast Conference was supposed to join the SEC and Big 12 as a true “super conference” in the world of College Football betting. Simply put, that has not happened and that’s despite solid performances from both the Hokies and Eagles (Miami has been a huge disappointment). The league has struggled immensely in bowl games (6-12 SU last two years), but Virginia Tech did break through last January becoming the first ACC school to win a BCS bowl game since ’99. This year could see a rebound, despite no team projected to be in the mix for a National Championship. They sent a record 10 teams to bowls last season, though for the second time in three years had no teams ranked in the top 10 at year’s end.

The Atlantic Division appears to be the weaker of the conference’s two divisions as only one (Florida State) of its six teams is ranked in either Top 25 poll. That being said, all six were in a bowl last year. Interestingly, the media’s pick to win the division is Clemson. Even more interesting is that neither of those two schools are our pick.

Last year, NC State became the only team in the country to qualify for a bowl game despite not being favored in a single game. Thanks in large part to Freshman QB Russell Wilson, the Wolfpack covered each of its final seven regular season games, including winning the final four outright. With a healthy Wilson under center + four home games to start the year (have 8 overall), NC State will avoid the slow start that hurt them last year and are our pick to win the ACC Atlantic.

Florida State has gone just 12-12 SU in conference play the last three years, but this appears to be Bobby Bowden’s strongest team since the one that captured the ’05 division crown. They have eight starters back on offense, including QB Ponder, but the schedule is tough with BYU, South Florida and Florida all on the non-conference slate and they draw North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Miami out of the Coastal.

Stop when you’ve heard this one before. People are picking Clemson to win the ACC Title. That hasn’t happened since 1990! The Tigers were a complete disaster last season, starting out ranked in the Top 10, but HC Tommy Bowden was fired mid-way through the season. Despite losing their QB, top RB and top WR, the Tigers will actually be better in ’09 and should start the year no worse than 6-2.

Wake Forest comes off back-to-back .500+ seasons in the ACC for the first time since 1953 and should make it three in a row with senior QB Riley Skinner returning. Defense is a major issue, however, with the five top tacklers (four of them NFL draft choices) all gone. Like many of the ACC teams, the Demon Deacons look like a 7-win team that will make a fringe bowl.

Boston College is going through its third coaching change in four years, but at least this time it’s former DC Frank Spaziani (10 years w/ program) taking over the reigns. The Eagles’ 30-11 SU record is the best of any Atlantic team over the last three years, but we are unsure if they can make it to an 11^th straight bowl game (eight game bowl win streak snapped last year).

It looks like it’s going to be a tough year at Maryland where HC Ralph Friedgen has had three losing seasons in the last five years. RB Da’Rel Scott is clearly the star of the offense, but with just 56% of last year’s lettermen returning (lowest number for a non-service academy in the country), there just isn’t much around him.

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